Week 1: Oklahoma State at Tulsa, Season Opener Preview
Saturday, September 5, 2:45 p.m. kickoff, H.A. Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, on ESPNU. Oklahoma State opens as roughly a two touchdown favorite, sitting at 14 points, which on paper looks like it should be comfortable. I want to walk through why before we get to the gameplan, because there is a lot of newness on both sidelines, and newness is the one variable a betting line cannot fully account for in Week 1.
Where the program is at
Let us not soften where this thing started. OSU was 1 and 11 last year, 0 and 9 in Big 12 play, and the program needed a full teardown. That is exactly what it got. Eric Morris came over from North Texas and, per OSU's own release, brought 91 newcomers into the program, believed to be the largest single class turnover in major college football history, surpassing Colorado's 87 in 2023. Twenty one of those newcomers played for Morris at UNT, including the three most recognizable names on the roster, quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and receiver Wyatt Young, all three of whom carry national preseason recognition. But this is not simply North Texas transplanted to Stillwater. There are 24 returners from last year's OSU roster mixed in, headlined by defensive end Jaleel Johnson, a fifth year senior who has spent his entire career in Stillwater and who Morris himself has already called the most disruptive player on the defense.
Morris and Mestemaker are in year three together, which is about as much continuity as a program can ask for at the sport's most important position, and Morris has talked about how far ahead schematically this group is compared to a typical first year staff, thanks to an offseason install that mirrored an NFL program rather than a rushed training camp cram session. The concern in camp was never the scheme, it was toughness and finishing, areas Morris flagged directly and has been coaching hard on since. Health wise, OSU enters clean. Left tackle Braydon Nelson has a chance to be full go after a knee issue, Ashton Lepo is rounding back into playing shape, and the staff expects its rotational pass rusher back after a lingering issue. Nothing here should keep meaningful pieces off the field Saturday. The bigger question is cohesion, particularly on a defense that is breaking in a brand new coordinator in Skyler Cassity, who is only 32 years old, calling for a defense that is almost entirely new to each other and to him, in a road environment in Week 1.
On the other sideline, Tulsa is further down the runway. This is year two for Tre Lamb, and while last season's record was not where the program wanted it, he is not treating 2026 as a continued rebuild, he called this offseason a chance to get bigger, faster and stronger with players who already know his system. He was blunt about the gap in continuity in his press conference this week. Of OSU he said, "It's well documented how many guys they brought in. And a lot of that was out of necessity. It's a complete restart for that program." He is using that gap as part of his message internally, and he has not shied away from what this game means locally, calling it a rivalry with real stakes for Tulsa's alumni and student body. His approach entering the opener is direct. "I want to be the aggressor this year and set the tone starting in the first game," he said, and he made clear he does not want his team hanging around or keeping it close, he wants to win outright.
Eric Morris, for his part, has kept the message internal as well. Asked about outside expectations this week, he said, "We can't worry about the outside noise or the predictions. Our focus is 100% internal. We have to execute our game plan flow from the very first whistle." He also framed the trip itself as an opportunity rather than a hurdle, noting it is "a great opportunity for our fans to travel" and calling a regional opener like this "a good litmus test for where we are at." On the quarterback and offensive coordinator relationship, he pointed to the shorthand he and Mestemaker have built over three years together, saying Mestemaker "knows exactly what I'm looking for before the play is even communicated," which he called invaluable given how many new pieces are on the field around him.
This is a true road game, but it is not a hostile one. OSU and Tulsa are separated by just 72 miles down the turnpike, this is a short trip for the Cowboy fan base, and given how well OSU travels compared to Tulsa's own draw, expect the crowd at Chapman Stadium to lean orange more than most true road environments would suggest. Home field here is a minor factor at most, not a real obstacle. What is worth noting for location and history, OSU has won four straight games played specifically at Tulsa, even though Tulsa holds the long-term series edge in these buildings, 21 wins to 17. The more relevant recent data point cuts the other way emotionally for Tulsa, because last year's meeting was played in Stillwater, and Tulsa won it, 19 to 12, the OSU home loss that is clearly still fueling this Golden Hurricane team even if Lamb says he has not brought it up with his players directly.
What makes this matchup unique
This is a pace and style mismatch as much as it is a talent mismatch. Morris's Air Raid is built to play fast, North Texas snapped the ball quickly last year while still leading the entire FBS in total offense, a rare combination of tempo and efficiency. Tulsa, by contrast, is not built to match that speed. Lamb's team wants to control tempo, establish the run and keep the game manageable, and defensively last season neither program was good at creating extra possessions, OSU's old staff finished with a turnover margin of minus 0.42 and Tulsa finished at minus 0.75, both bottom third nationally. Those numbers belong to different coaching staffs and rosters than what takes the field Saturday, but they do speak to how competitive and mistake prone this rivalry has been in recent seasons, and it tells you neither side should expect style points, this will likely be decided by who plays cleaner situational football rather than a blowout built on turnovers forced.
The other outlier worth watching is Tulsa's pass rush against an Oklahoma State offensive line that is still settling on its best five. Edge rushers Kyran Duhon, an OSU transfer now playing for Tulsa and a preseason All-conference pick, along with Thomas Davis, both flashed getting after the quarterback in fall work. If that front can generate pressure with four rushers, it forces Mestemaker into the off platform, take a hit and still deliver mode that Tre Lamb himself praised in his press conference, effective in flashes, but not something a first year staff wants to lean on for four quarters against a good rush. Meanwhile, OSU's defensive identity is the single biggest swing variable in this game. Cassity's defense at Sam Houston in 2024 was top ten nationally, and it played downhill and aggressive to get there. If he can get anywhere close to that out of a defense that is still learning calls together in real time, OSU dictates terms all afternoon. If not, Tulsa hangs around simply by staying on schedule and forcing extra snaps.
OSU offensive gameplan
Tulsa's defense is going to be without preseason All-conference cornerback Elijah Green, who intercepted five passes last season and is out with a knee injury that is not expected to resolve quickly. That is a significant subtraction on the perimeter, and it is the first thing this staff should be looking to attack. Expect OSU to formation Tulsa into space early, use motion to identify whether the backup corners are playing zone or man, and take a shot or two down the field before Tulsa's secondary communication is fully settled in. Mestemaker's calling card, according to Lamb, is that he will fit throws into windows most quarterbacks will not even attempt, "There's gonna be five or six throws Saturday where we're just like, okay, indefensible," Lamb said of him, so look for OSU to isolate its perimeter targets, particularly Wyatt Young and Chris Barnes, against Tulsa's less experienced coverage pieces and dare them to match up in single coverage.
Up front, this is a matchup OSU should win if protection holds. Mestemaker gets the ball out on rhythm and does not hold it long, which mitigates a lot of what Duhon and Davis want to do off the edge, but the coaches will be looking for tackles Jacob Sexton and Ashton Lepo to hold up on an island long enough for those quick rhythm throws to develop. In the run game, expect OSU to rotate its backfield, Caleb Hawkins early with Tre Page III mixed in, to keep bodies fresh and to hold Tulsa's front honest enough that the Golden Hurricane cannot simply tee off on obvious passing downs. Establish just enough of a run threat, stay ahead of the chains, and let Mestemaker pick apart a defense already down its best cover man.
OSU defensive gameplan
This is where I have real questions, and I would rather be honest about that than pretend otherwise. Cassity is going to want to play downhill and aggressive, in the mold of what he built at Sam Houston, and get pressure with four so he can drop extra bodies into coverage. The challenge is doing that with a defense that has almost as much turnover as the offense and has not had a real road test together yet. The plan on paper should be to make Baylor Hayes and this Tulsa staff earn everything on the ground first, force third and long rather than allowing Tulsa to control tempo and eat clock, because the longer this stays a low possession, clock control game, the more it favors the team that already knows exactly who it is.
Individually, watch how OSU's new linebacker trio of Ethan Wesloski, Tate Romney and Isaiah Chisom handles a Tulsa backfield that wants to get its running backs matched up in coverage and in space. That is a matchup this group needs to win with structure, not just individual talent. On the other side of the ball, if OSU's defensive tackles, Saadiq Clements and Iman Oates, can control the interior gaps against a Tulsa offensive line that is also still finding itself, it takes away the easy, ahead of schedule runs that let a game plan settle in early. Make Hayes uncomfortable, take away the easy completions underneath, and force Tulsa into the kind of passing downs where OSU's added pass rush pieces, transfer end James Williams among them, can get home.
Special teams
Tulsa has gone through its own overhaul here. Max Tulen takes over at punter and Marlon Hauck, a Mississippi State transfer who already handled kickoff duty for Tulsa a year ago, projects as the placekicker, so neither specialist is a complete unknown even in a rebuilt room. OSU counters with a full specialist group of its own with actual game experience, kicker Sam Keltner and Joseph Kim both available at kicker and kickoff duty, punter Lachie Pozzobon and Nate Ost splitting punting and holding, and a return game led by Chris Barnes and Miles Coleman, both dynamic enough with the ball in space to flip field position on a given play. Tulsa's most dangerous weapon in this phase remains NuNu Campbell, who doubles as a corner and the primary return man, but he enters the week questionable, and if he is limited or unavailable, that removes one of the few explosive plays Tulsa has access to outside of its base offense. In a game that could easily turn into a field position battle if OSU's defense is still finding its footing, this is an area where the more settled roster should show up, and OSU cannot afford to give back that advantage with a careless coverage breakdown of its own.
Coaching matchup
Morris is not going to be conservative here, and that is not a guess, it is a track record. He is one of the more aggressive fourth down coaches in the country, and after a rough conversion year in 2024 at North Texas he did not back off the aggression, he got better at it, hitting 72 percent on fourth down in 2025. Expect him to go for it in OSU territory in situations plenty of coaches would not, and expect him to trust Mestemaker to bail him out if an early call does not work. Cassity, from his time at Sam Houston, coaches the same way on defense, aggressive and downhill, willing to bring pressure rather than sit in a prevent shell. On the other sideline, Lamb has made clear this is a program that wants to be the aggressor as well, and he does not sound interested in playing it safe just because his roster is less experienced at the skill spots than OSU's transfer heavy group. This should not be a game where either staff plays scared, which raises the odds this one is decided by execution rather than a coaching mismatch.
Bottom line and prediction
OSU should be the more talented team on the field Saturday, particularly with the way Mestemaker and this passing game are built to attack a Tulsa secondary that is already down its best cover man. This is a regional trip, not a hostile road environment, and OSU should have real support in the stands. If the offensive line holds up enough for Mestemaker to play on rhythm and OSU's new defense can get Tulsa off schedule on early downs, I believe this is the game where Oklahoma State pulls away rather than survives. When this team plays clean, it has the talent gap to turn a two possession game into a laugher in the second half, and I expect that to happen here. I like Oklahoma State to win comfortably and cover the 14 point spread by at least a touchdown, and I will put a number on it, Oklahoma State 42, Tulsa 13. Go Pokes!
Saturday, September 5, 2:45 p.m. kickoff, H.A. Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, on ESPNU. Oklahoma State opens as roughly a two touchdown favorite, sitting at 14 points, which on paper looks like it should be comfortable. I want to walk through why before we get to the gameplan, because there is a lot of newness on both sidelines, and newness is the one variable a betting line cannot fully account for in Week 1.
Where the program is at
Let us not soften where this thing started. OSU was 1 and 11 last year, 0 and 9 in Big 12 play, and the program needed a full teardown. That is exactly what it got. Eric Morris came over from North Texas and, per OSU's own release, brought 91 newcomers into the program, believed to be the largest single class turnover in major college football history, surpassing Colorado's 87 in 2023. Twenty one of those newcomers played for Morris at UNT, including the three most recognizable names on the roster, quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and receiver Wyatt Young, all three of whom carry national preseason recognition. But this is not simply North Texas transplanted to Stillwater. There are 24 returners from last year's OSU roster mixed in, headlined by defensive end Jaleel Johnson, a fifth year senior who has spent his entire career in Stillwater and who Morris himself has already called the most disruptive player on the defense.
Morris and Mestemaker are in year three together, which is about as much continuity as a program can ask for at the sport's most important position, and Morris has talked about how far ahead schematically this group is compared to a typical first year staff, thanks to an offseason install that mirrored an NFL program rather than a rushed training camp cram session. The concern in camp was never the scheme, it was toughness and finishing, areas Morris flagged directly and has been coaching hard on since. Health wise, OSU enters clean. Left tackle Braydon Nelson has a chance to be full go after a knee issue, Ashton Lepo is rounding back into playing shape, and the staff expects its rotational pass rusher back after a lingering issue. Nothing here should keep meaningful pieces off the field Saturday. The bigger question is cohesion, particularly on a defense that is breaking in a brand new coordinator in Skyler Cassity, who is only 32 years old, calling for a defense that is almost entirely new to each other and to him, in a road environment in Week 1.
On the other sideline, Tulsa is further down the runway. This is year two for Tre Lamb, and while last season's record was not where the program wanted it, he is not treating 2026 as a continued rebuild, he called this offseason a chance to get bigger, faster and stronger with players who already know his system. He was blunt about the gap in continuity in his press conference this week. Of OSU he said, "It's well documented how many guys they brought in. And a lot of that was out of necessity. It's a complete restart for that program." He is using that gap as part of his message internally, and he has not shied away from what this game means locally, calling it a rivalry with real stakes for Tulsa's alumni and student body. His approach entering the opener is direct. "I want to be the aggressor this year and set the tone starting in the first game," he said, and he made clear he does not want his team hanging around or keeping it close, he wants to win outright.
Eric Morris, for his part, has kept the message internal as well. Asked about outside expectations this week, he said, "We can't worry about the outside noise or the predictions. Our focus is 100% internal. We have to execute our game plan flow from the very first whistle." He also framed the trip itself as an opportunity rather than a hurdle, noting it is "a great opportunity for our fans to travel" and calling a regional opener like this "a good litmus test for where we are at." On the quarterback and offensive coordinator relationship, he pointed to the shorthand he and Mestemaker have built over three years together, saying Mestemaker "knows exactly what I'm looking for before the play is even communicated," which he called invaluable given how many new pieces are on the field around him.
This is a true road game, but it is not a hostile one. OSU and Tulsa are separated by just 72 miles down the turnpike, this is a short trip for the Cowboy fan base, and given how well OSU travels compared to Tulsa's own draw, expect the crowd at Chapman Stadium to lean orange more than most true road environments would suggest. Home field here is a minor factor at most, not a real obstacle. What is worth noting for location and history, OSU has won four straight games played specifically at Tulsa, even though Tulsa holds the long-term series edge in these buildings, 21 wins to 17. The more relevant recent data point cuts the other way emotionally for Tulsa, because last year's meeting was played in Stillwater, and Tulsa won it, 19 to 12, the OSU home loss that is clearly still fueling this Golden Hurricane team even if Lamb says he has not brought it up with his players directly.
What makes this matchup unique
This is a pace and style mismatch as much as it is a talent mismatch. Morris's Air Raid is built to play fast, North Texas snapped the ball quickly last year while still leading the entire FBS in total offense, a rare combination of tempo and efficiency. Tulsa, by contrast, is not built to match that speed. Lamb's team wants to control tempo, establish the run and keep the game manageable, and defensively last season neither program was good at creating extra possessions, OSU's old staff finished with a turnover margin of minus 0.42 and Tulsa finished at minus 0.75, both bottom third nationally. Those numbers belong to different coaching staffs and rosters than what takes the field Saturday, but they do speak to how competitive and mistake prone this rivalry has been in recent seasons, and it tells you neither side should expect style points, this will likely be decided by who plays cleaner situational football rather than a blowout built on turnovers forced.
The other outlier worth watching is Tulsa's pass rush against an Oklahoma State offensive line that is still settling on its best five. Edge rushers Kyran Duhon, an OSU transfer now playing for Tulsa and a preseason All-conference pick, along with Thomas Davis, both flashed getting after the quarterback in fall work. If that front can generate pressure with four rushers, it forces Mestemaker into the off platform, take a hit and still deliver mode that Tre Lamb himself praised in his press conference, effective in flashes, but not something a first year staff wants to lean on for four quarters against a good rush. Meanwhile, OSU's defensive identity is the single biggest swing variable in this game. Cassity's defense at Sam Houston in 2024 was top ten nationally, and it played downhill and aggressive to get there. If he can get anywhere close to that out of a defense that is still learning calls together in real time, OSU dictates terms all afternoon. If not, Tulsa hangs around simply by staying on schedule and forcing extra snaps.
OSU offensive gameplan
Tulsa's defense is going to be without preseason All-conference cornerback Elijah Green, who intercepted five passes last season and is out with a knee injury that is not expected to resolve quickly. That is a significant subtraction on the perimeter, and it is the first thing this staff should be looking to attack. Expect OSU to formation Tulsa into space early, use motion to identify whether the backup corners are playing zone or man, and take a shot or two down the field before Tulsa's secondary communication is fully settled in. Mestemaker's calling card, according to Lamb, is that he will fit throws into windows most quarterbacks will not even attempt, "There's gonna be five or six throws Saturday where we're just like, okay, indefensible," Lamb said of him, so look for OSU to isolate its perimeter targets, particularly Wyatt Young and Chris Barnes, against Tulsa's less experienced coverage pieces and dare them to match up in single coverage.
Up front, this is a matchup OSU should win if protection holds. Mestemaker gets the ball out on rhythm and does not hold it long, which mitigates a lot of what Duhon and Davis want to do off the edge, but the coaches will be looking for tackles Jacob Sexton and Ashton Lepo to hold up on an island long enough for those quick rhythm throws to develop. In the run game, expect OSU to rotate its backfield, Caleb Hawkins early with Tre Page III mixed in, to keep bodies fresh and to hold Tulsa's front honest enough that the Golden Hurricane cannot simply tee off on obvious passing downs. Establish just enough of a run threat, stay ahead of the chains, and let Mestemaker pick apart a defense already down its best cover man.
OSU defensive gameplan
This is where I have real questions, and I would rather be honest about that than pretend otherwise. Cassity is going to want to play downhill and aggressive, in the mold of what he built at Sam Houston, and get pressure with four so he can drop extra bodies into coverage. The challenge is doing that with a defense that has almost as much turnover as the offense and has not had a real road test together yet. The plan on paper should be to make Baylor Hayes and this Tulsa staff earn everything on the ground first, force third and long rather than allowing Tulsa to control tempo and eat clock, because the longer this stays a low possession, clock control game, the more it favors the team that already knows exactly who it is.
Individually, watch how OSU's new linebacker trio of Ethan Wesloski, Tate Romney and Isaiah Chisom handles a Tulsa backfield that wants to get its running backs matched up in coverage and in space. That is a matchup this group needs to win with structure, not just individual talent. On the other side of the ball, if OSU's defensive tackles, Saadiq Clements and Iman Oates, can control the interior gaps against a Tulsa offensive line that is also still finding itself, it takes away the easy, ahead of schedule runs that let a game plan settle in early. Make Hayes uncomfortable, take away the easy completions underneath, and force Tulsa into the kind of passing downs where OSU's added pass rush pieces, transfer end James Williams among them, can get home.
Special teams
Tulsa has gone through its own overhaul here. Max Tulen takes over at punter and Marlon Hauck, a Mississippi State transfer who already handled kickoff duty for Tulsa a year ago, projects as the placekicker, so neither specialist is a complete unknown even in a rebuilt room. OSU counters with a full specialist group of its own with actual game experience, kicker Sam Keltner and Joseph Kim both available at kicker and kickoff duty, punter Lachie Pozzobon and Nate Ost splitting punting and holding, and a return game led by Chris Barnes and Miles Coleman, both dynamic enough with the ball in space to flip field position on a given play. Tulsa's most dangerous weapon in this phase remains NuNu Campbell, who doubles as a corner and the primary return man, but he enters the week questionable, and if he is limited or unavailable, that removes one of the few explosive plays Tulsa has access to outside of its base offense. In a game that could easily turn into a field position battle if OSU's defense is still finding its footing, this is an area where the more settled roster should show up, and OSU cannot afford to give back that advantage with a careless coverage breakdown of its own.
Coaching matchup
Morris is not going to be conservative here, and that is not a guess, it is a track record. He is one of the more aggressive fourth down coaches in the country, and after a rough conversion year in 2024 at North Texas he did not back off the aggression, he got better at it, hitting 72 percent on fourth down in 2025. Expect him to go for it in OSU territory in situations plenty of coaches would not, and expect him to trust Mestemaker to bail him out if an early call does not work. Cassity, from his time at Sam Houston, coaches the same way on defense, aggressive and downhill, willing to bring pressure rather than sit in a prevent shell. On the other sideline, Lamb has made clear this is a program that wants to be the aggressor as well, and he does not sound interested in playing it safe just because his roster is less experienced at the skill spots than OSU's transfer heavy group. This should not be a game where either staff plays scared, which raises the odds this one is decided by execution rather than a coaching mismatch.
Bottom line and prediction
OSU should be the more talented team on the field Saturday, particularly with the way Mestemaker and this passing game are built to attack a Tulsa secondary that is already down its best cover man. This is a regional trip, not a hostile road environment, and OSU should have real support in the stands. If the offensive line holds up enough for Mestemaker to play on rhythm and OSU's new defense can get Tulsa off schedule on early downs, I believe this is the game where Oklahoma State pulls away rather than survives. When this team plays clean, it has the talent gap to turn a two possession game into a laugher in the second half, and I expect that to happen here. I like Oklahoma State to win comfortably and cover the 14 point spread by at least a touchdown, and I will put a number on it, Oklahoma State 42, Tulsa 13. Go Pokes!