Over/Under: Five Stat Predictions for Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Welcome back to our Over/Under series as Oklahoma State is set to face Kansas State up in Manhattan, KS.
On this series, we take a look at five stat categories, give a number based on some research and you have to decide whether you think the actual performance will be over or under the stat given.
I had a lot of stuff come up last week, so I wasn’t able to get one up on the Iowa State game, but I can tell you with some confidence whatever stats I had decided to go with on the defensive side of the ball probably would’ve missed as the OSU defense made Iowa State look like one of the best offenses in the conference.
On the flip side, whatever offensive stats given probably would’ve been over as well. Special teams was fairly poor, so I think we all would’ve missed.
Our first offensive stat will be Over/Under 250 passing yards for Drew Mestemaker
I’ll start off by saying this number seems super low based on how good Drew has been this season. He leads the conference with 353 passing yards per conference game, nearly 40 more yards per game than Arizona’s Noah Fifita and nearly 100 more yards than Houston’s Conner Weigman.
The Wildcats have one of the best passing defenses in the conference as they allow just 191 passing yards per conference game, putting them fourth in the conference.
While there is no doubt Drew can and is going to get his yards, I’ve got to put some respect on the Wildcat DBs. With that being said, I’m going to take the over. I think Drew, Justin Bowick, Wyatt Young and Caleb Hawkins and Co. will combine for over 300 yards through the air.
Over/Under 150 rushing yards for Caleb Hawkins
Caleb has really come on strong as the season has progressed as he leads the Big 12 with 129 rushing yards per conference game. He also leads the conference in total rushing yards with 645 yards in conference games.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas State is second to last in the conference as they’re giving up 208 rushing yards per conference game. I think Caleb is going to continue his strong season and say he goes over 150 rushing yards. I also think he’ll have over 200 total yards.
Our first defensive stat will be Over/Under 275 passing yards allowed
It was announced earlier this week by Collin Klien that back up quarterback Blake Barnett is set to be the starter on Saturday as Avery Johnson might miss the rest of the season. In the 27-24 overtime loss on the road to Colorado this past week, Barnett went 18 of 28 for 224 yards and three passing touchdowns.
In conference play, the Cowboys are allowing nearly 279 passing yards per game, a total of 1,392 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Can the Cowboys hold Barnett and the Wildcats to at least 275? While I would love to think they’ll get some things figured out since last weekend, Iowa State ranks 15th in the conference in passing yards per game and the Cowboys gave up 309 passing yards. I’ll take the over, I think the Wildcats will have more than 275.
Over/Under 175 rushing yards allowed
The Cowboys will be facing former OSU running back Rodney Fields on Saturday, and there’s no doubt he’ll be playing with a massive edge. With that being said, the Wildcats are No. 6 in the conference in rushing yards per conference game with 167 per. The Cowboys have struggled mightily at times this season in stopping the run, giving up 187 yards per conference game, which ranks 11th in the league. That’s also coming off allowing 272 yards to Aiden Flora and Iowa State last week.
Can the Cowboys have a bounce back week and hold the Wildcats to at least 175 rushing yards? I’m going to take the over, but not by much.
Our lone special teams stat will be Over/Under two punts for OSU
The OSU offense has been very efficient this season as Lachie Pozzobon has only recorded eight punts in Big 12 play, that’s six less than the next closest school in Texas Tech. Can the OSU offense continue to keep Lachie off the field on Saturday? I’m gonna take a push here and say he has two.
OK, so a score. These are getting harder and harder to do. The Pokes lead the conference with 44 points per conference game, which is roughly 10 more points than Utah, Tech, Arizona and WVU, while allowing 32 points per game.
On the other side, the Wildcats are giving up 29 points per game, while scoring just under 24 points per game.
So, with all that, plus the defensive woes, I’m gonna go with 45-38 OSU.
