Week 7: Oklahoma State at Houston
Saturday, October 17, 6:30 p.m. Central, TDECU Stadium, Houston, on FOX. Houston opens as a 3.5 point favorite, with Oklahoma State at plus 142 on the moneyline and the total sitting at 58.5. That is essentially the books giving Houston a field goal for home field and saying these two teams are dead even on paper. This is a ranked versus ranked showdown in prime time, the first top 25 matchup inside Houston's stadium since 2015, and it is the biggest test this Oklahoma State team has faced since Oregon came to Stillwater. Both teams have one thing in common coming in. They have each figured out how to win games that were not going their way.
Where the program is at
Oklahoma State is 4 and 1, 2 and 0 in Big 12 play, and riding a four game winning streak after a 42 to 28 win over UCF that was a lot closer than the final score suggests. Eric Morris was honest about it afterward. He called it a gritty win rather than a pretty one, and summed up the afternoon this way: "We're finding ways to win, a lot to clean up though." That is exactly the right message for a team that led just 24 to 21 heading into the fourth quarter before pulling away with 18 points in the final period. The play that broke it open came on defense, when UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins threw a backward pass that hit the turf and safety Evan Jackson scooped it and went 28 yards for a touchdown to make it 33 to 21. Jackson was only on the field because Mose Phillips III left with a shoulder issue, which Morris said afterward is not expected to be a long term problem.
The best news of the day was Drew Mestemaker. After being responsible for seven turnovers through the first four games, and two weeks of the staff hammering ball security during the bye, Mestemaker played his cleanest game of the season, 19 of 28 for 304 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, a rushing touchdown and a two point conversion. Morris let him check the majority of the run pass options in the second half and praised his ball placement and eyes. That is a quarterback who is seeing leverage and leverage changes at the line of scrimmage, and it is a big reason he is now at 1,575 yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. Justin Bowick (6 catches, 98 yards, a touchdown and a one handed grab) continues to build real trust with his quarterback over the middle, and Wyatt Young played through a week on the availability report and still found the end zone.
What needs to improve is just as clear. The run game never got going. Caleb Hawkins fumbled on the opening possession, Morris went right back to him, and Hawkins ground out 83 yards on 23 carries, but as a team OSU averaged just 3.4 yards a carry. Defensively, UCF found answers early with its quarterback run game, and Morris said plainly that the defense was not good on the perimeter setting edges in the first half. UCF converted 7 of 16 third downs and 4 of 5 fourth downs, and Morris pointed to some flat out busts on third down as things that simply cannot happen. Two pass interference penalties in the secondary also handed UCF field position. The halftime adjustments worked, the defense gave up just seven second half points and held UCF to 2.7 yards a carry for the game, but Houston is a much more complete offense than UCF.
On the health front, Braydon Nelson saw one possession at left tackle in the second quarter and did not return, so coaches will be watching his availability closely this week. Desmond Magiya started at left guard with Johnny Dickson III available but not playing. Morris also made a point that matters for the rest of this season: there are no more bye weeks, seven straight games from here, and this team has to be tough enough to handle that stretch.
Then there is the building. This is a true road game in prime time on national television against a ranked opponent that has been waiting for this exact night. Houston has struggled with attendance through a string of 11 a.m. kickoffs, but a Saturday night top 25 game is a different animal, and expect the crowd to be a factor early. It also has some history attached. Last year Houston walked into Boone Pickens Stadium and won 39 to 17, with Conner Weigman throwing for 306 yards against a Cowboy team that was just trying to survive the season. Almost nobody from that OSU roster is on the field Saturday, but the Houston quarterback is the same, and he will remember it.
Houston is 5 and 1, 2 and 1 in Big 12 play, and just went into Manhattan as a 2.5 point underdog and beat Kansas State 35 to 16. The Cougars' only loss came at Texas Tech, 28 to 26, when Weigman came up just short on a two point try in the final minute. They have also shown a resilience streak of their own, rallying from 17 to 0 down against UCF with Weigman playing sick and running for three second half touchdowns. Willie Fritz is in his third year, has won everywhere he has been, and has this team looking like a legitimate Big 12 contender.
What makes this matchup unique
This is a game of strength versus weakness on both sides of the ball, and the team that wins its strength gets to dictate terms.
Start with Houston's defense, because the numbers are about as lopsided as you will see. Entering the Kansas State game, Houston ranked eighth nationally in run defense, allowing just 65 yards per game and 2.6 yards a carry. Defensive end Brandon Mack II and tackle Khalil Laufau have been wrecking games at the line of scrimmage. But that same defense ranked 123rd nationally in passing yards allowed, and only three FBS teams had given up more passes of 20 yards or longer. Defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong has been open about the frustration, pointing to inconsistent pressure on the quarterback and at least nine dropped interceptions. In other words, Houston will take away the run and dare you to throw it over the top. OSU is coming off a game where the run game struggled and the passing game carried the day. This sets up as a week where Morris leans into who this offense really is.
The other storyline is ball control. Houston is a possession offense that wears you down. The Cougars came into Kansas State third nationally in first downs per game, then piled up 26 more, ran it 43 times for 233 yards, went 7 of 14 on third down, 3 of 3 on fourth down, did not turn it over once, and held the ball for nearly 35 minutes. Houston's offensive line, led by left guard Shadre Hurst, had allowed only five sacks all season entering that game. Meanwhile, OSU just watched UCF run 83 plays to its 60 and win the possession battle by more than ten minutes. That is the danger here. If Houston stays ahead of the chains and keeps converting third downs, OSU's explosive offense spends long stretches on the sideline watching.
So the hidden battle in this game is third down. Houston lives on it. OSU's defense was excellent on third down through the first four games, then had its worst day of the season against UCF. Whichever version of that defense shows up Saturday night will tell you a lot about the outcome.
Finally, turnovers. Houston did not give the ball away at Kansas State and Weigman has thrown just one interception in his first five games. Mestemaker finally played a clean game. In a game this evenly matched, the team that wins the turnover battle probably wins the game, and coaches on both sides know it.
OSU offensive gameplan
Coaches will be looking at Houston's tape and seeing the same thing everyone else sees. You are not going to line up and run inside zone 35 times against this front and win. That does not mean abandoning the run, Morris stayed with it against UCF and it paid off late, but the run game has to be used to keep Houston honest rather than to carry the offense. Expect the staff to put an emphasis on the passing game early, using tempo and motion to make the defense declare before the snap, and letting Mestemaker check into the best look at the line the way he did against UCF.
Matchup number one is Justin Bowick against Houston's corners. Bowick is 6 foot 5, and Houston's starting corner Jalen Mayo, a transfer from Stephen F. Austin, is 6 foot 1. That is a four inch edge on the outside. Back shoulder throws, fades in the red zone, put the ball where only your guy can get it. Bowick has become Mestemaker's most trusted target over the middle as well, and against a secondary that has given up big plays all season, the crossers that worked against UCF should be there again.
Matchup number two is Wyatt Young and the vertical game. Houston has struggled to keep receivers in front of it, and Young is a receiver who had three catches of 48 yards or more at West Virginia. Take the top off the defense early, make the safeties play deep, and that opens the intermediate windows where Mestemaker does his best work. The one name to watch on Houston's side is safety Jordan Allen, who led the Big 12 with six pass breakups entering last week. Know where he is, and attack the other side of the field.
Matchup number three is the run pass option game against Houston's linebackers. If Houston is going to stack the box to stop Hawkins, Mestemaker reading the conflict defender and pulling it or throwing it is the answer. Morris trusted him with those decisions against UCF, and it is the cleanest way to get Hawkins favorable looks without running into a loaded box. Get Hawkins the ball in space on the perimeter and in the screen game, let him make the first guy miss, and let the run game come from the passing game rather than the other way around.
Up front, Shaun Torgeson at left tackle, Magiya or Dickson at left guard, Tyler Mercer at center, and Ashton Lepo at right tackle face their toughest test since Oregon. Mack is the disruptor coaches will want to account for on every snap. The good news is this line gave up just one sack against UCF, and Morris said that one was on the quarterback. Get the ball out on time, keep Mestemaker clean, and this offense has more than enough to move the ball on this secondary.
And in the red zone, keep the creativity coming. The heavy package with Malik Charles at tight end and Morgan McPhaul as the ball carrier worked against UCF. Houston has been excellent in short yardage on defense, so coaches will need a few more of those wrinkles ready to finish drives with touchdowns instead of field goals.
OSU defensive gameplan
Skyler Cassity's defense has one job above all else this week. Get Houston off the field. That starts on first down. If Houston is in second and four all night, it will run the ball, convert third downs and grind the clock. If Cassity's group can win first down and create third and long, Houston becomes a lot more ordinary.
The first priority is the run game. Houston rotates Makhi Hughes and Re'Shaun Sanford II, both of whom have been productive, and runs it behind an offensive line that has dominated all season. This is where the interior rotation of Jerry Lawson, Saadiq Clements, Iman Oates, Braylon Rigsby and Luke Webb has to win. Webb made one of the biggest plays of the UCF game, stuffing a fourth and one run up the middle, and that kind of anticipation and push against Hurst and this Houston interior is exactly what this game requires. Wave after wave of fresh bodies, control the gaps, keep the linebackers clean, and let them run to the football.
The second priority is Weigman, and specifically Weigman's legs. He ran for three second half touchdowns against UCF and has been a weapon near the goal line. That is the exact problem OSU struggled with early against UCF, setting the edge against a quarterback run game. Jaleel Johnson and James Williams have to set hard edges, play disciplined rush lanes and keep Weigman in the pocket. Do not let a broken play turn into a 15 yard scramble on third down. Make him beat you from the pocket, and make him do it against tight coverage.
The biggest individual matchup on the board is tight end Patrick Overmyer against OSU's linebackers and safeties. Overmyer is 6 foot 5, 240 pounds, and caught all four of Weigman's touchdown passes at Kansas State, which tied an FBS record for a tight end. Fritz explained why after the game, noting that when Houston goes to two tight end sets it usually runs the ball, but it can throw too because "those two guys are like receivers." That is the conflict OSU has to solve. Ethan Wesloski, Tate Romney and Isaiah Chisom have been outstanding, Wesloski had 17 tackles and Romney 14 against UCF, but they will be asked to fit the run and carry Overmyer up the seam on the same play action look. In the red zone, coaches will want a plan for where Overmyer is on every snap, whether that is Christian Bodnar at nickel or Quinton Hammonds rolling down.
On the outside, Houston has Amare Thomas, a first team All Big 12 receiver a year ago, and Koby Young, a deep threat averaging 22 yards a catch. LaDainian Fields, Trudell Berry and Mo Horn need to stay on top and keep everything in front. Make Houston drive the field. And the secondary has to play clean. Two pass interference penalties against UCF handed away field position, and against a ball control offense, free yards are the last thing this defense can afford.
The pass rush is the other piece. Houston gives up very few sacks, so OSU may not get home often. That means pressure has to show up as hurries and a quarterback forced off his spot. DJ Jackson Jr. and DeSean Brown, who forced a punt with a pressure against UCF, give this staff fresh legs off the edge to keep coming in waves.
Special teams
This is a battle of two kickers who simply do not miss. Sam Keltner is 12 for 12 on field goals this season. Houston counters with Jonathan Dimas, who was perfect himself through the UCF game and earned Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week honors after his two late field goals sealed that comeback. In a game that could easily come down to a possession, that is a wash, and it means coaches on both sides will trust their kicker on a long attempt in a big moment.
Where OSU can find an edge is in the return game and the hidden yardage. Bobby Deal Jr. made a heads up play on a punt return against UCF, running up to catch a bouncing ball and taking it 21 yards to set up a touchdown. Chris Barnes and Miles Coleman remain explosive threats on kickoffs. Against a ball control team that wants to make you drive the length of the field, flipping field position with one return can be worth a touchdown. Win the hidden yardage, avoid a coverage breakdown, and make Houston start drives deep in its own territory.
Coaching matchup
Eric Morris calls his own plays and he is going to stay aggressive on fourth down. He went for it on fourth and five on the second possession against UCF, converted to Wyatt Young, and it set up Mestemaker's touchdown run. Expect more of that in Houston, especially in plus territory, because Morris trusts this offense to move the chains.
Willie Fritz and offensive coordinator Slade Nagle are cut from a different cloth but are not conservative either. Houston went 3 for 3 on fourth down at Kansas State, including a fourth down touchdown pass on the opening drive. This is a staff that knows its identity, run the football, play complementary football, use two tight end sets to create conflicts, and trust Weigman to make the right decision. On defense, Austin Armstrong's group has been dominant against the run, but coaches will be expecting him to adjust to a pass first OSU attack, whether that means more two high safety looks or bringing pressure to speed up Mestemaker's clock. If Armstrong brings pressure and Mestemaker sees it pre snap, that is where the big play shots come from.
The real coaching question is tempo versus control. Morris wants to snap it fast and stress the defense. Fritz wants to shorten the game and keep Mestemaker on the sideline. The staff that gets the game played at its pace has the edge.
Bottom line and prediction
This is the most evenly matched game on OSU's schedule so far, and I am not going to pretend otherwise. Houston is a well coached, physical team with a veteran quarterback, an elite run defense, and a ball control offense that just went on the road and dominated a good Kansas State team. Playing at night in their own building, with a national audience, the Cougars will be ready.
But I also like how this game sets up for Oklahoma State. Houston's defense is built to stop the run, and OSU is at its best throwing the football. Houston's secondary has been the soft spot all year, and OSU has Bowick, Young, and a quarterback who just showed he can play clean, mistake free football while checking the offense into the right looks. If the defense sets the edge, wins on first down, and finds an answer for Overmyer in the red zone, this team has the explosive play ability to win a game like this on the road.
I expect Houston to run the ball well early and make OSU earn every stop. I expect the crowd to be a factor in the first quarter. But I also expect Mestemaker to hit two or three explosive shots against this secondary, Bowick to win a jump ball in the red zone, Keltner to stay perfect, and the defense to make one or two critical third down stops in the second half. A 58.5 point total says both offenses will make plays, and I agree, but I think the team that throws it better wins this one. I like Oklahoma State to win on the road.
Oklahoma State 31, Houston 28. Go Pokes!
Saturday, October 17, 6:30 p.m. Central, TDECU Stadium, Houston, on FOX. Houston opens as a 3.5 point favorite, with Oklahoma State at plus 142 on the moneyline and the total sitting at 58.5. That is essentially the books giving Houston a field goal for home field and saying these two teams are dead even on paper. This is a ranked versus ranked showdown in prime time, the first top 25 matchup inside Houston's stadium since 2015, and it is the biggest test this Oklahoma State team has faced since Oregon came to Stillwater. Both teams have one thing in common coming in. They have each figured out how to win games that were not going their way.
Where the program is at
Oklahoma State is 4 and 1, 2 and 0 in Big 12 play, and riding a four game winning streak after a 42 to 28 win over UCF that was a lot closer than the final score suggests. Eric Morris was honest about it afterward. He called it a gritty win rather than a pretty one, and summed up the afternoon this way: "We're finding ways to win, a lot to clean up though." That is exactly the right message for a team that led just 24 to 21 heading into the fourth quarter before pulling away with 18 points in the final period. The play that broke it open came on defense, when UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins threw a backward pass that hit the turf and safety Evan Jackson scooped it and went 28 yards for a touchdown to make it 33 to 21. Jackson was only on the field because Mose Phillips III left with a shoulder issue, which Morris said afterward is not expected to be a long term problem.
The best news of the day was Drew Mestemaker. After being responsible for seven turnovers through the first four games, and two weeks of the staff hammering ball security during the bye, Mestemaker played his cleanest game of the season, 19 of 28 for 304 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, a rushing touchdown and a two point conversion. Morris let him check the majority of the run pass options in the second half and praised his ball placement and eyes. That is a quarterback who is seeing leverage and leverage changes at the line of scrimmage, and it is a big reason he is now at 1,575 yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. Justin Bowick (6 catches, 98 yards, a touchdown and a one handed grab) continues to build real trust with his quarterback over the middle, and Wyatt Young played through a week on the availability report and still found the end zone.
What needs to improve is just as clear. The run game never got going. Caleb Hawkins fumbled on the opening possession, Morris went right back to him, and Hawkins ground out 83 yards on 23 carries, but as a team OSU averaged just 3.4 yards a carry. Defensively, UCF found answers early with its quarterback run game, and Morris said plainly that the defense was not good on the perimeter setting edges in the first half. UCF converted 7 of 16 third downs and 4 of 5 fourth downs, and Morris pointed to some flat out busts on third down as things that simply cannot happen. Two pass interference penalties in the secondary also handed UCF field position. The halftime adjustments worked, the defense gave up just seven second half points and held UCF to 2.7 yards a carry for the game, but Houston is a much more complete offense than UCF.
On the health front, Braydon Nelson saw one possession at left tackle in the second quarter and did not return, so coaches will be watching his availability closely this week. Desmond Magiya started at left guard with Johnny Dickson III available but not playing. Morris also made a point that matters for the rest of this season: there are no more bye weeks, seven straight games from here, and this team has to be tough enough to handle that stretch.
Then there is the building. This is a true road game in prime time on national television against a ranked opponent that has been waiting for this exact night. Houston has struggled with attendance through a string of 11 a.m. kickoffs, but a Saturday night top 25 game is a different animal, and expect the crowd to be a factor early. It also has some history attached. Last year Houston walked into Boone Pickens Stadium and won 39 to 17, with Conner Weigman throwing for 306 yards against a Cowboy team that was just trying to survive the season. Almost nobody from that OSU roster is on the field Saturday, but the Houston quarterback is the same, and he will remember it.
Houston is 5 and 1, 2 and 1 in Big 12 play, and just went into Manhattan as a 2.5 point underdog and beat Kansas State 35 to 16. The Cougars' only loss came at Texas Tech, 28 to 26, when Weigman came up just short on a two point try in the final minute. They have also shown a resilience streak of their own, rallying from 17 to 0 down against UCF with Weigman playing sick and running for three second half touchdowns. Willie Fritz is in his third year, has won everywhere he has been, and has this team looking like a legitimate Big 12 contender.
What makes this matchup unique
This is a game of strength versus weakness on both sides of the ball, and the team that wins its strength gets to dictate terms.
Start with Houston's defense, because the numbers are about as lopsided as you will see. Entering the Kansas State game, Houston ranked eighth nationally in run defense, allowing just 65 yards per game and 2.6 yards a carry. Defensive end Brandon Mack II and tackle Khalil Laufau have been wrecking games at the line of scrimmage. But that same defense ranked 123rd nationally in passing yards allowed, and only three FBS teams had given up more passes of 20 yards or longer. Defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong has been open about the frustration, pointing to inconsistent pressure on the quarterback and at least nine dropped interceptions. In other words, Houston will take away the run and dare you to throw it over the top. OSU is coming off a game where the run game struggled and the passing game carried the day. This sets up as a week where Morris leans into who this offense really is.
The other storyline is ball control. Houston is a possession offense that wears you down. The Cougars came into Kansas State third nationally in first downs per game, then piled up 26 more, ran it 43 times for 233 yards, went 7 of 14 on third down, 3 of 3 on fourth down, did not turn it over once, and held the ball for nearly 35 minutes. Houston's offensive line, led by left guard Shadre Hurst, had allowed only five sacks all season entering that game. Meanwhile, OSU just watched UCF run 83 plays to its 60 and win the possession battle by more than ten minutes. That is the danger here. If Houston stays ahead of the chains and keeps converting third downs, OSU's explosive offense spends long stretches on the sideline watching.
So the hidden battle in this game is third down. Houston lives on it. OSU's defense was excellent on third down through the first four games, then had its worst day of the season against UCF. Whichever version of that defense shows up Saturday night will tell you a lot about the outcome.
Finally, turnovers. Houston did not give the ball away at Kansas State and Weigman has thrown just one interception in his first five games. Mestemaker finally played a clean game. In a game this evenly matched, the team that wins the turnover battle probably wins the game, and coaches on both sides know it.
OSU offensive gameplan
Coaches will be looking at Houston's tape and seeing the same thing everyone else sees. You are not going to line up and run inside zone 35 times against this front and win. That does not mean abandoning the run, Morris stayed with it against UCF and it paid off late, but the run game has to be used to keep Houston honest rather than to carry the offense. Expect the staff to put an emphasis on the passing game early, using tempo and motion to make the defense declare before the snap, and letting Mestemaker check into the best look at the line the way he did against UCF.
Matchup number one is Justin Bowick against Houston's corners. Bowick is 6 foot 5, and Houston's starting corner Jalen Mayo, a transfer from Stephen F. Austin, is 6 foot 1. That is a four inch edge on the outside. Back shoulder throws, fades in the red zone, put the ball where only your guy can get it. Bowick has become Mestemaker's most trusted target over the middle as well, and against a secondary that has given up big plays all season, the crossers that worked against UCF should be there again.
Matchup number two is Wyatt Young and the vertical game. Houston has struggled to keep receivers in front of it, and Young is a receiver who had three catches of 48 yards or more at West Virginia. Take the top off the defense early, make the safeties play deep, and that opens the intermediate windows where Mestemaker does his best work. The one name to watch on Houston's side is safety Jordan Allen, who led the Big 12 with six pass breakups entering last week. Know where he is, and attack the other side of the field.
Matchup number three is the run pass option game against Houston's linebackers. If Houston is going to stack the box to stop Hawkins, Mestemaker reading the conflict defender and pulling it or throwing it is the answer. Morris trusted him with those decisions against UCF, and it is the cleanest way to get Hawkins favorable looks without running into a loaded box. Get Hawkins the ball in space on the perimeter and in the screen game, let him make the first guy miss, and let the run game come from the passing game rather than the other way around.
Up front, Shaun Torgeson at left tackle, Magiya or Dickson at left guard, Tyler Mercer at center, and Ashton Lepo at right tackle face their toughest test since Oregon. Mack is the disruptor coaches will want to account for on every snap. The good news is this line gave up just one sack against UCF, and Morris said that one was on the quarterback. Get the ball out on time, keep Mestemaker clean, and this offense has more than enough to move the ball on this secondary.
And in the red zone, keep the creativity coming. The heavy package with Malik Charles at tight end and Morgan McPhaul as the ball carrier worked against UCF. Houston has been excellent in short yardage on defense, so coaches will need a few more of those wrinkles ready to finish drives with touchdowns instead of field goals.
OSU defensive gameplan
Skyler Cassity's defense has one job above all else this week. Get Houston off the field. That starts on first down. If Houston is in second and four all night, it will run the ball, convert third downs and grind the clock. If Cassity's group can win first down and create third and long, Houston becomes a lot more ordinary.
The first priority is the run game. Houston rotates Makhi Hughes and Re'Shaun Sanford II, both of whom have been productive, and runs it behind an offensive line that has dominated all season. This is where the interior rotation of Jerry Lawson, Saadiq Clements, Iman Oates, Braylon Rigsby and Luke Webb has to win. Webb made one of the biggest plays of the UCF game, stuffing a fourth and one run up the middle, and that kind of anticipation and push against Hurst and this Houston interior is exactly what this game requires. Wave after wave of fresh bodies, control the gaps, keep the linebackers clean, and let them run to the football.
The second priority is Weigman, and specifically Weigman's legs. He ran for three second half touchdowns against UCF and has been a weapon near the goal line. That is the exact problem OSU struggled with early against UCF, setting the edge against a quarterback run game. Jaleel Johnson and James Williams have to set hard edges, play disciplined rush lanes and keep Weigman in the pocket. Do not let a broken play turn into a 15 yard scramble on third down. Make him beat you from the pocket, and make him do it against tight coverage.
The biggest individual matchup on the board is tight end Patrick Overmyer against OSU's linebackers and safeties. Overmyer is 6 foot 5, 240 pounds, and caught all four of Weigman's touchdown passes at Kansas State, which tied an FBS record for a tight end. Fritz explained why after the game, noting that when Houston goes to two tight end sets it usually runs the ball, but it can throw too because "those two guys are like receivers." That is the conflict OSU has to solve. Ethan Wesloski, Tate Romney and Isaiah Chisom have been outstanding, Wesloski had 17 tackles and Romney 14 against UCF, but they will be asked to fit the run and carry Overmyer up the seam on the same play action look. In the red zone, coaches will want a plan for where Overmyer is on every snap, whether that is Christian Bodnar at nickel or Quinton Hammonds rolling down.
On the outside, Houston has Amare Thomas, a first team All Big 12 receiver a year ago, and Koby Young, a deep threat averaging 22 yards a catch. LaDainian Fields, Trudell Berry and Mo Horn need to stay on top and keep everything in front. Make Houston drive the field. And the secondary has to play clean. Two pass interference penalties against UCF handed away field position, and against a ball control offense, free yards are the last thing this defense can afford.
The pass rush is the other piece. Houston gives up very few sacks, so OSU may not get home often. That means pressure has to show up as hurries and a quarterback forced off his spot. DJ Jackson Jr. and DeSean Brown, who forced a punt with a pressure against UCF, give this staff fresh legs off the edge to keep coming in waves.
Special teams
This is a battle of two kickers who simply do not miss. Sam Keltner is 12 for 12 on field goals this season. Houston counters with Jonathan Dimas, who was perfect himself through the UCF game and earned Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week honors after his two late field goals sealed that comeback. In a game that could easily come down to a possession, that is a wash, and it means coaches on both sides will trust their kicker on a long attempt in a big moment.
Where OSU can find an edge is in the return game and the hidden yardage. Bobby Deal Jr. made a heads up play on a punt return against UCF, running up to catch a bouncing ball and taking it 21 yards to set up a touchdown. Chris Barnes and Miles Coleman remain explosive threats on kickoffs. Against a ball control team that wants to make you drive the length of the field, flipping field position with one return can be worth a touchdown. Win the hidden yardage, avoid a coverage breakdown, and make Houston start drives deep in its own territory.
Coaching matchup
Eric Morris calls his own plays and he is going to stay aggressive on fourth down. He went for it on fourth and five on the second possession against UCF, converted to Wyatt Young, and it set up Mestemaker's touchdown run. Expect more of that in Houston, especially in plus territory, because Morris trusts this offense to move the chains.
Willie Fritz and offensive coordinator Slade Nagle are cut from a different cloth but are not conservative either. Houston went 3 for 3 on fourth down at Kansas State, including a fourth down touchdown pass on the opening drive. This is a staff that knows its identity, run the football, play complementary football, use two tight end sets to create conflicts, and trust Weigman to make the right decision. On defense, Austin Armstrong's group has been dominant against the run, but coaches will be expecting him to adjust to a pass first OSU attack, whether that means more two high safety looks or bringing pressure to speed up Mestemaker's clock. If Armstrong brings pressure and Mestemaker sees it pre snap, that is where the big play shots come from.
The real coaching question is tempo versus control. Morris wants to snap it fast and stress the defense. Fritz wants to shorten the game and keep Mestemaker on the sideline. The staff that gets the game played at its pace has the edge.
Bottom line and prediction
This is the most evenly matched game on OSU's schedule so far, and I am not going to pretend otherwise. Houston is a well coached, physical team with a veteran quarterback, an elite run defense, and a ball control offense that just went on the road and dominated a good Kansas State team. Playing at night in their own building, with a national audience, the Cougars will be ready.
But I also like how this game sets up for Oklahoma State. Houston's defense is built to stop the run, and OSU is at its best throwing the football. Houston's secondary has been the soft spot all year, and OSU has Bowick, Young, and a quarterback who just showed he can play clean, mistake free football while checking the offense into the right looks. If the defense sets the edge, wins on first down, and finds an answer for Overmyer in the red zone, this team has the explosive play ability to win a game like this on the road.
I expect Houston to run the ball well early and make OSU earn every stop. I expect the crowd to be a factor in the first quarter. But I also expect Mestemaker to hit two or three explosive shots against this secondary, Bowick to win a jump ball in the red zone, Keltner to stay perfect, and the defense to make one or two critical third down stops in the second half. A 58.5 point total says both offenses will make plays, and I agree, but I think the team that throws it better wins this one. I like Oklahoma State to win on the road.
Oklahoma State 31, Houston 28. Go Pokes!