Pac-12, as Expected, Announces They Are Not Pursuing Expansion at This Time

Robert at this point we need to quit thinking about other leagues. If it happens so be it. What we need to do is focus on building the Big 8 to what will be the best league for its members.

First step is to stay firm make OU/UT play out the next two years. That is so we can collect the full $160M. Then negotiate an exit date from the GoR for them for 2023-4. Get the SEC to pay by extending the Sugar Bowl deal and give us a scheduling alliance. We make big money for the Sugar Bowl, and having say 8 SEC teams on our TV contract has to have value (not to mention the return money from 8 appearances on their network).

Then you go ahead and get two teams to join in 2023-4. Say BYU and UCF, then you have two years to show what value the league has, then you negotiate a new deal and work out if more teams are needed or not.

Also press the alliance to keep us autonomous and in the playoff pool. I don't think they'd object to that, and again that's more money.

We can't sit in stasis waiting and hoping for something good to happen in 3 or 4 years that we have no control over. The league needs to move forward as if nothing is going to happen. If it does the by-laws will get us some exit money and give us time to work out the next step.

Getting rid of OU & UT means that OSU/BU/TCU/KSU might have a real chance of making the playoffs. Let that happen a few times and wala new high value teams will be created.

LOL - USC...

I thought all you had to do to get admittance to USC was pay to be on the rowing team...

61% of USC students are from out-of-State (17% are furiners, mostly from China - e.g. international spies)

Well at least some of the eyes that matter are on expansion and next steps.

TT AD Hocutt is leading the Big XII expansion committee.

https://www.lubbockonline.com/story/sports/college/football/2021/08/26/college-sports-kirby-hocutt-says-big-12-expansion-plans-under-way/5607522001/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

NJAggie said:

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Robert at this point we need to quit thinking about other leagues. If it happens so be it. What we need to do is focus on building the Big 8 to what will be the best league for its members.

First step is to stay firm make OU/UT play out the next two years. That is so we can collect the full $160M. Then negotiate an exit date from the GoR for them for 2023-4. Get the SEC to pay by extending the Sugar Bowl deal and give us a scheduling alliance. We make big money for the Sugar Bowl, and having say 8 SEC teams on our TV contract has to have value (not to mention the return money from 8 appearances on their network).

Then you go ahead and get two teams to join in 2023-4. Say BYU and UCF, then you have two years to show what value the league has, then you negotiate a new deal and work out if more teams are needed or not.

Also press the alliance to keep us autonomous and in the playoff pool. I don't think they'd object to that, and again that's more money.

We can't sit in stasis waiting and hoping for something good to happen in 3 or 4 years that we have no control over. The league needs to move forward as if nothing is going to happen. If it does the by-laws will get us some exit money and give us time to work out the next step.

Getting rid of OU & UT means that OSU/BU/TCU/KSU might have a real chance of making the playoffs. Let that happen a few times and wala new high value teams will be created.

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No BYU because the no playing on Sunday issue is a non starter for most conferences, if anyone along with UCF it would probably be a team that has had long term success at the G of 5 level and has beaten a lot of Power 5 teams, someone like Cincinnati or Boise State.

I am so shocked....not!...Now, the BIG 8 needs to terminate Bowlsby and find a leader that is awake to lead the conference to wherever it is going. Bowlsby cannot be trusted with this effort as too much is at stake. Do I think OSU will be invited to join the PAC12 or SEC one day? Yes. But, there must be a contingency plan in place in case that never materializes and that is adding teams, use aggressive scheduling, produce an exciting brand of football, beat the "blue bloods" and survive. The BIG 8 needs to get visionary and aggressive leadership at the helm. Captain Edward Smith, I mean Commissioner Bob Bowlsby, is not that leader. Move on. He failed. Do not hook the OSU and other seven teams' future to his wagon. Build the new "Flyover Conference" with a new leader and kick azz. Not the best. Maybe the only option.

Joe Khatib said:

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No BYU because the no playing on Sunday issue is a non starter for most conferences, if anyone along with UCF it would probably be a team that has had long term success at the G of 5 level and has beaten a lot of Power 5 teams, someone like Cincinnati or Boise State.

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The no Sunday thing is not an issue.

We need the 2/4/8 best teams available to make the new league have enough TV appeal to get us close to the money we've been making. BYU is clearly and by a great margin the best option. No other school is even close. You can't move into this with a bunch of prejudice against the schools we're going to consider. You have to look at the numbers. The numbers say BYU/Boise/UCF/Houston. You don't whine about no Sundays you don't whine about Houston stealing our recruits, you dont' whine about blue turf, or the distance to Orlando. You take the best options and hope this thing grows, and we win a lot of games and make the playoffs regularly.

TUSKAPOKE said:

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I am so shocked....not!...Now, the BIG 8 needs to terminate Bowlsby and find a leader that is awake to lead the conference to wherever it is going. Bowlsby cannot be trusted with this effort as too much is at stake. Do I think OSU will be invited to join the PAC12 or SEC one day? Yes. But, there must be a contingency plan in place in case that never materializes and that is adding teams, use aggressive scheduling, produce an exciting brand of football, beat the "blue bloods" and survive. The BIG 8 needs to get visionary and aggressive leadership at the helm. Captain Edward Smith, I mean Commissioner Bob Bowlsby, is not that leader. Move on. He failed. Do not hook the OSU and other seven teams' future to his wagon. Build the new "Flyover Conference" with a new leader and kick azz. Not the best. Maybe the only option.

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You really can't count on expansion, you have to move on and build the Big XII. If you get an offer go for it, but you have to make sure the Big XII expands the right way, and gives you a home where you can support all the other sports with.

Yes...like what I wrote. My main point is that we need to do that with visionary leadership that is aggressive and a marketing expert. That is not Bowlsby. BYU is not out as far as I am concerned because of their viewer base and too much is made of not playing on Sunday. Other candidates need to involve the big markets in Texas for eyes and recruiting. Boise, UCF, Memphis and Cincinnati are all decent candidates. I do not believe a Nebraska or Missouri would change because it is about money and not on field success. The BIG 12 or 14 or 16 claims Power 5 status and gets a team or two in the 12 team CFP. Win on the field....bring exciting football to the masses...win. Watch the Shorthorns and Sewerners wallow in mediocrity at times in the SEC. GO POKES!!!

Well we have a guaranteed access to a playoff spot that only 5 leagues poses. I think we can lean on the alliance to keep us in the group. They want a more traditional role.

I think the 12 team playoff is dead. Even the Big XII is voting against it.

The Alliance wants an 8 team playoff with all 5 autonomous leagues champions in it, and may want more champs included with few at large teams. First round in the Bowls, second round after then championship.

That format benefits us, and keeps us power 5 regardless of ESPN's desires.

Move forward add 4 good schools and enjoy a conference where we don't have to beat OU and UT every year to get a shot at a championship and playoff berth.

I actually see this as a great new beginning, and that we should treat it as such and go forward. Quit waiting on what others can do for us, and do what we need for ourselves.

I'm pretty sure that Tech invented leadership....

Joe Khatib said:

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No BYU because the no playing on Sunday issue is a non starter for most conferences, if anyone along with UCF it would probably be a team that has had long term success at the G of 5 level and has beaten a lot of Power 5 teams, someone like Cincinnati or Boise State.

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The "Sunday" thingy only really comes into play for baseball weekend series, but it's not that hard to schedule a double header on Friday or Saturday.

Leaving Sunday for worship is not really an issue.

NJAggie said:

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I think we can lean on the alliance to keep us in the group. They want a more traditional role.

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unless USC is included in that "leaning on", apparently they are skeered of OSU and would prefer that the playoffs remain at 4 teams, and include preferential treatment for the Power 4 conferences (wink, wink)

TV and local market impacts should be at the forefront of these decisions. IMO, add UCF (large impact in Florida, 66k students and #3 most populated state), Cincinnati (major City #29 in U.S. and exposure to upper midwest media/Ohio #7 most populated state), Colorado State (Denver, Ft. Collins, Colorado Springs, Pueblo mega metro, 19th metro in U
S. and 21st most pop. state), and Houston (S. Texas and Houston is 5th largest metro in U.S. behind #4 DFW , Texas 2nd most populated state). If you want 14 teams, add Boise (39th most populated state) and BYU (Utah 30th most populated state).

No on CSU... they do not draw the Denver market, nor any of the rest, and their program stinks.... stinks bad.

Horrible.

Hell, add Air Force if you want that market.... much better program, and many, many, many more eyeballs.

for Cincy, I think you also need to consider much of the Kentucky market, since it's a border city.

Boise doesn't offer the eyeballs that Memphis (Tenn) can offer, and Tenn is better geographically.

BYU is NOT the Utah market, it is the Mormon market, they have their own freaking TV channel - it's huge. Enormous. I know lots of Mormons, and I've never even been to Utah. A guy that I work with follows BYU (yes, he's Mormon), but he went to Utah (University).

None of these opions really add any value to us. We have to get in an another conf.

CaliforniaCowboy said:

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No on CSU... they do not draw the Denver market, nor any of the rest, and their program stinks.... stinks bad.

Horrible.

Hell, add Air Force if you want that market.... much better program, and many, many, many more eyeballs.

for Cincy, I think you also need to consider much of the Kentucky market, since it's a border city.

Boise doesn't offer the eyeballs that Memphis (Tenn) can offer, and Tenn is better geographically.

BYU is NOT the Utah market, it is the Mormon market, they have their own freaking TV channel - it's huge. Enormous. I know lots of Mormons, and I've never even been to Utah. A guy that I work with follows BYU (yes, he's Mormon), but he went to Utah (University).

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You need the MT or PA time zone schools so you can make sure you have 1 to 2 games for late western viewing. We have to maximize our time slots to maximize our money so we need 2-4 MT/PA tz schools.

Highly unlikely and we can't wait 4 years to find out and then have no path forward.

Start working to build the Big XII. If a better offer comes then make your choice.

NJAggie said:

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You need the MT or PA time zone schools so you can make sure you have 1 to 2 games for late western viewing. We have to maximize our time slots to maximize our money so we need 2-4 MT/PA tz schools.

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I don't think having MT or PA time zones has been demonstrated to be that beneficial, but that wasn't my point.

I was only pointing out that I thought that the markets that some of those teams represent were either over or under stated, for those reasons.

Cal, last expansion Colorado State was considered very viable as a candidate. They would likely have a decent chance to catch and surpass CU in sports if in the Big XII, as they have a good neighboring rival in K-State and tons of alum and fans down the Denver metro side. And if you haven't been to Fort Collins, it's beautiful, they have a new stadium, it's 45 minutes from Estes Park entrance to RMN Park. Just a great travel addition for fans in the Big XII.

Orangeheart72 said:

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Cal, last expansion Colorado State was considered very viable as a candidate. They would likely have a decent chance to catch and surpass CU in sports if in the Big XII, as they have a good neighboring rival in K-State and tons of alum and fans down the Denver metro side. And if you haven't been to Fort Collins, it's beautiful, they have a new stadium, it's 45 minutes from Estes Park entrance to RMN Park. Just a great travel addition for fans in the Big XII.

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yeah, I get all of that... but just no. They've never had success at anything. There are simply better options.

Cal:

If only they could get Sonny back.

Nah, I agree with you on CSU. I think its a great school. A good fit with the core conference members. Closer than a lot of other MT options.

Another one that intrigues me is SDSU. Not sure at 12, but if we were going to 16 I'd be pushing them hard.

Sounds like a lot of chatter on BYU is already taking place. Also hearing a lot with UCF as well.


https://theathletic.com/2793207/2021/08/27/the-big-12-is-seriously-discussing-byu-sources-say-and-the-tv-numbers-are-in-the-cougars-favor/

NJAggie said:

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Nah, I agree with you on CSU. I think its a great school. A good fit with the core conference members. Closer than a lot of other MT options.

Another one that intrigues me is SDSU. Not sure at 12, but if we were going to 16 I'd be pushing them hard.

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I've been saying do something bold all along, even before the goons left...

coast-to-coast, every timezone, every major recruiting hotbed.... go bold or don't go...

Totally agree, letting UT & ISU/KU shut down expansion 5 years ago was a stupid move.

Just read Pete Thamel Yahoo! Sports article about the BIG 12 being aggressive and adding 8 teams resulting in a conference in all time zones and huge TV markets. Thamel believes this weakens the AAC and Mtn West from replacing the BIG 12 as a Power 5 conference and will appeal to media money. It would expand recruiting areas. This approach would possibly weaken the PAC-12 too and become the 4th of the Power 5. There is not guarantee OSU gets invited due to money but this approach is interesting and is not sitting around. Form this alliance for the TV to negotiate the new TV deal, take on all blue bloods and win. Coast to coast BIG 16.

TUSKAPOKE said:

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Just read Pete Thamel Yahoo! Sports article about the BIG 12 being aggressive and adding 8 teams resulting in a conference in all time zones and huge TV markets. Thamel believes this weakens the AAC and Mtn West from replacing the BIG 12 as a Power 5 conference and will appeal to media money. It would expand recruiting areas. This approach would possibly weaken the PAC-12 too and become the 4th of the Power 5. There is not guarantee OSU gets invited due to money but this approach is interesting and is not sitting around. Form this alliance for the TV to negotiate the new TV deal, take on all blue bloods and win. Coast to coast BIG 16.

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One thing I've seen is typically going from 12 to 16 gets tricky for the money end of it, but timing is always so important. We have 2 networks launching streaming services not to mention the existing streaming services looking at getting into sports. That might be the marriage that would make a 16 team coast to coast conference of basically the best of the rest work.

I know it is risky but is also risky just sitting still. Will Rogers said even if you are on the right track you'll get run over if you just sit there. Another thought about this possibility is taking teams the PAC 12 might want and sink them to the 5th Power 5 conference and still stuck in the Mtn. and Pacific time zones. Form an "alliance" and start shopping it and see what the value may be. Better than taking the leftovers of the leftovers if it all goes to hell for OSU which I do not believe will happen but just in case.....I just know that the BIG 8 do not need to trust Bowlsby any longer. BB needs to be gone as the situation we are currently in rests mostly on his shoulders. OSU should not trust his flawed leadership any longer.

I agree. Doing nothing as so many urge based on sports writer speculation on the inevitability of 4x16 structure. The Alliance is screaming we don't want this. The B1G and PAC have stated their #1 goal in the next playoff set up is for their champs to play at NYD in the Rose Bowl. It's time for someone to say college football should be about tradition and not ESPN.

I also agree on Bowlsby, I think its time maybe you wait until after football, but we need to bring in someone like Luck that we can see in the new media market that we are going to need to go into.

I'm linking the Thamel article below as more people need to read it.

https://sports.yahoo.com/think-big-here-is-one-way-to-save-the-big-12-203016120.html

it's an interesting article... but a couple of misstated quotes to reach his position (like Pac12 said they would not expand). They actually said, "at this time"..... whatever that means. This guy chose it to mean, never, for the sake of his article.

but even this guy makes the same point ..... patience (as everybody has stated)

The league sizes will be modeled out by the Big 12's television consultants and studied. There's no clear timing path here, as the Big 12 will prioritize milking every possible penny out of the current deal with Oklahoma and Texas, which could mean four more seasons of playing out the current contract. (It's unlikely OU and Texas go in the next three years, as CBS would own their best games and no schools would make any more money. If ESPN buys out that CBS deal, things could change.)


He lists a sixteen team option for an expanded Big12, with 4 pods of 4. I think the biggest advantage of this broad of a national presence is make the recruiting markets available to all teams, equally. (CA, TX, FL)

The 4 pods listed might be okay (but I would prefer one member of each pod to be from a different part of the country)... but absent that, if they played their 3 pod partners and 2 teams from each of the other 3 pods (6 games), that would be 9 conference games, and a decent chance that all teams would visit CA, TX and FL on a very regular basis (for their recruits and their parents/families).

It might be interesting to also lump pods together to make two conferences (for a conference champ game)... hopefully flipping the pods annually to another conference (like East/West one year, and North/South the next) or some such. Give the talking heads some reason to have to talk about the conference, even if just to explain the nature of it's organization.

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I'm not convinced that the SEC won't come back and take on more teams just to counter the "alliance"

I just read an article from a journalist from the Florida area....

his take was questioning whether UCF would even entertain joining the Big12, or whether they may hold-out for an offer from the ACC, because they believe they are a better alternative than West Virginia (for example).

and very interesting thought....

It's an interesting take, but I think everyone would have to take an invite if offered for the simple fact that you don't know what might happen, and you can always make a second move if it does happen. Particularly as the exit fee from the AAC would not be a major deterrent.

Really the biggest thing is to find the two schools that could come in in 2023 IF OU/UT are let out. You just couldn't fix the hole in your schedule losing 2 teams would cause when you already play each other. I guess you could have the schools play 2 teams twice, but I don't think that would work very well.

NJAggie said:

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It's an interesting take, but I think everyone would have to take an invite if offered for the simple fact that you don't know what might happen, and you can always make a second move if it does happen. Particularly as the exit fee from the AAC would not be a major deterrent.

Really the biggest thing is to find the two schools that could come in in 2023 IF OU/UT are let out. You just couldn't fix the hole in your schedule losing 2 teams would cause when you already play each other. I guess you could have the schools play 2 teams twice, but I don't think that would work very well.

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oh yes... I totally agree with you... but I think it speaks less about expansion of the Big12 and more toward the position of "where do the Big12 teams go" .... which suggests that maybe teams like WVU get passed over by ACC for a UCF, and maybe a team like KU gets passed over by a team like Cincy...

most of the breakup crowd seems to be assuming that the left-behind eight would get legitimate P4 offers... which may not happen at all, for any number of reasons, like the one this journalist suggested....

UCF is a better property than most of the remaining Big8 teams.

Oh yeah, you're right they are.

In fact the PAC 12 seems to have been much more interested in Houston than any of the Big XII teams.

I also don't think the B1G/PAC/ACC are as money motivated as the SEC/UT/OU are. Everyone keeps going they'll have to find a way to raise their payouts to match the SEC. First I don't see any adds they can do outside of cannibalizing each other, or kicking teams out that would do that. Second I don't see that being their attitude, they're making enough as is, and don't want to mess with their membership. Their standing pat, and want to return some of the traditions to the game. They are not participating in the rush to get to 4x16, that was ESPN's dream not theirs.

Their going to go to an 8 team playoff, and their going to add at least 2 more guaranteed slots for conference champs to it. People forget that the SEC and Big XII worked to get the ACC to vote for the SEC desired 4 best teams in the current format. The B1G/PAC wanted 4 best Champions. So the fact they want more champs in the playoffs is not new it was always their preference. The difference is that the ACC has switched sides, and the Big XII probably has as well (they better have).

I guess the thing that seems crazy is the whole concept that you can't be patient and wait, while at the same time taking the action you need to take in case the invites never come. I think some of it is a lot of these people just hate expansion unless OSU is getting invited to go somewhere else.

I agree with you and CC about this stream of discussion. I am concerned that an offer may not come along and if you wait too long then other teams that may have made the BIG 12 or BIG 16 a viable conference are taken by some other conference. I do not trust anything Bowlsby is leading. I do not want OSU in the AAC or Mtn. West because the P4 offer never came and that is it. I know RA believes everything will work out for OSU to be one of the 64 P4 schools and end up in the SEC or PAC 12. I have faith in contingency plans, aggressive action now running out options and not letting someone else decide the future. Other "alliances" can be formed to spin some more chaos into it to break it open and force hands with this FUBAR situation. I am not patient.