College Football Playoff Scenarios Based on Championship Saturday Results

STILLWATER – Based on the most recent rankings from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee it would appear that with a win in the Big 12 Championship Game over No. 9 Baylor that No. 5 Oklahoma State is close to a slam dunk to make the College Football Playoff. The selection committee will be watching all of the championship games together at The Gaylord Texan in preparation for making their final rankings and determining the four teams in the playoff and the teams making trips to New year’s Six bowl games.

“First of all, it's just exciting to get to this point of the season and have the opportunity to watch all these champ games,” said Gary Barta, College Football Playoff Selection Committee chairperson. “It seems like football season just started. But here we are, we're going to sit and watch, Friday and Saturday, we're going to watch all these great champ games.

College Football Playoff

Gary Barta, chairperson of the CFP Selection Committee.

“You know, I would say we already have formed -- the committee has already formed opinions. And you said one through five, So we've already formed a lot of, using the whole season, we formed a lot of thoughts about all of them,” continued Barta. “And so, we'll use that information. We'll still use that information when we come back on late Saturday night into Sunday morning. But then we'll have an additional piece of information. And we're not looking for any one thing in those champ games. We're looking to see what that adds to what we already believe about those teams.

“I mentioned earlier Oklahoma State showed the committee that in a playoff-like environment against Oklahoma in a rivalry game, they really found a way to win,” Barta added. “We'll see how that game goes against Baylor. We'll see how Baylor does against Oklahoma State. They have [lost audio] beat Oklahoma earlier. So there's not one thing that the committee is going to look at. But we all watched the games together. So we'll have a chance while we're watching -- I'm going to be sitting in between an NFL Hall of Famer and a long-time, couple long-time collegiate coaches and other ADs, and you have an opportunity to talk while you're watching, which is really invaluable.”

Here is what we think the committee will end up with based on the rankings and what we think the results will cause them to think. In all scenarios, Oklahoma State defeats Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Scenario 1 – All Favorites win. Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC, Michigan beats Iowa in the Big 10, and Cincinnati defeats Houston in the AAC.

No. 1 Georgia vs. #4 Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Michigan vs. #3 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl

Note: The win over Baylor by Oklahoma State and the overall schedule in winning the Big 12 trumps Cincinnati being unbeaten in the AAC.

Scenario 2 – All Underdogs win. Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC, Iowa beats Michigan in the Big Ten, and Houston beats Cincinnati in the AAC.

No. 1 Alabama vs. #4 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl

Scenario 3 – Georgia beats Alabama in SEC, Iowa beats Michigan in Big Ten, Cincinnati beats Houston in the AAC

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl

Scenario 4 – Georgia beats Alabama in SEC, Iowa beats Michigan in the Big Ten, Houston beats Cincinnati in AAC

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl

Scenario 5 – Alabama beats Georgia in SEC, Michigan beats Iowa in the Big Ten, Cincinnati beats Houston in the AAC

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl

Scenario 6 – Alabama beats Georgia in SEC, Iowa beats Michigan in the Big Ten, Cincinnati beats Houston in the AAC

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl