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Oklahoma State Football

College Football Playoff Scenarios Based on Championship Saturday Results

December 1, 2021
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STILLWATER – Based on the most recent rankings from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee it would appear that with a win in the Big 12 Championship Game over No. 9 Baylor that No. 5 Oklahoma State is close to a slam dunk to make the College Football Playoff. The selection committee will be watching all of the championship games together at The Gaylord Texan in preparation for making their final rankings and determining the four teams in the playoff and the teams making trips to New year’s Six bowl games.

“First of all, it's just exciting to get to this point of the season and have the opportunity to watch all these champ games,” said Gary Barta, College Football Playoff Selection Committee chairperson. “It seems like football season just started. But here we are, we're going to sit and watch, Friday and Saturday, we're going to watch all these great champ games.

College Football Playoff
Gary Barta, chairperson of the CFP Selection Committee.

“You know, I would say we already have formed -- the committee has already formed opinions. And you said one through five, So we've already formed a lot of, using the whole season, we formed a lot of thoughts about all of them,” continued Barta. “And so, we'll use that information. We'll still use that information when we come back on late Saturday night into Sunday morning. But then we'll have an additional piece of information. And we're not looking for any one thing in those champ games. We're looking to see what that adds to what we already believe about those teams.

“I mentioned earlier Oklahoma State showed the committee that in a playoff-like environment against Oklahoma in a rivalry game, they really found a way to win,” Barta added. “We'll see how that game goes against Baylor. We'll see how Baylor does against Oklahoma State. They have [lost audio] beat Oklahoma earlier. So there's not one thing that the committee is going to look at. But we all watched the games together. So we'll have a chance while we're watching -- I'm going to be sitting in between an NFL Hall of Famer and a long-time, couple long-time collegiate coaches and other ADs, and you have an opportunity to talk while you're watching, which is really invaluable.”

Here is what we think the committee will end up with based on the rankings and what we think the results will cause them to think. In all scenarios, Oklahoma State defeats Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Scenario 1 – All Favorites win. Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC, Michigan beats Iowa in the Big 10, and Cincinnati defeats Houston in the AAC.

No. 1 Georgia vs. #4 Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Michigan vs. #3 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl

Note: The win over Baylor by Oklahoma State and the overall schedule in winning the Big 12 trumps Cincinnati being unbeaten in the AAC.

Scenario 2 – All Underdogs win. Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC, Iowa beats Michigan in the Big Ten, and Houston beats Cincinnati in the AAC.

No. 1 Alabama vs. #4 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl

Scenario 3 – Georgia beats Alabama in SEC, Iowa beats Michigan in Big Ten, Cincinnati beats Houston in the AAC

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl

Scenario 4 – Georgia beats Alabama in SEC, Iowa beats Michigan in the Big Ten, Houston beats Cincinnati in AAC

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl

Scenario 5 – Alabama beats Georgia in SEC, Michigan beats Iowa in the Big Ten, Cincinnati beats Houston in the AAC

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl

Scenario 6 – Alabama beats Georgia in SEC, Iowa beats Michigan in the Big Ten, Cincinnati beats Houston in the AAC

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl

No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl

Discussion from...

College Football Playoff Scenarios Based on Championship Saturday Results

7,736 Views | 19 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by CaliforniaCowboy
TUSKAPOKE
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7:35p, 12/1/21
BEAT BAYLOR.....DREAMS MAY COME TRUE!!!!
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GumbyFromPokeyLand
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8:26p, 12/1/21
Interesting. You have UGA on the outside in most cases where they lose to Bama.
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Jally
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8:40p, 12/1/21
Yeah, he's high if he thinks UGA is out with one loss to Bama.
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GumbyFromPokeyLand
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In reply to Jally • 11:29p, 12/1/21
Jally said:
Yeah, he's high if he thinks UGA is out with one loss to Bama.


I don't know. Will a 1-loss conference runner-up with only one top-20 win get in over a 1-loss conference champ with 3 top-15 wins? I don't think so.
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CaliforniaCowboy
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In reply to GumbyFromPokeyLand • 7:29a, 12/2/21
and that is the exact problem with a "committee"

and they would likely also include "blue blood" (i.e., UGA over OSU), and UGA has been #1 in the country practically the entire year, and killing their opponents (style points), and after all, their loss would have been against the team that they anointed #2 in the first place.... of course #1 and #2 remain at that top, possibly only switching positions.

You're using logic, instead of tradition and style as over-riding factors. It becomes the quality of the loss (ISU or Bama), not quality of wins (because that's what the need to create the playoff that they want)

using the same approach, OSU should get in over an undefeated Cincy, right fellas? We can't have any stinking non-power5 teams in the almighty playoff, because "we" (the committee) decide which games are important, and which wins we like better, and which programs are deserving. Right?

IMHO, a one loss-UGA should be in over OSU, and an undefeated Cincy should be in over any 1-loss team.

I hope that you're correct Gumby.... win and we're in. Since we go first, we'll know right away whether we need to watch any games the rest of the day.
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texastornado
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9:31a, 12/2/21
There is absolutely no chance Georgia falls out of the playoff picture with a loss. There is nothing more the committee wants than 2 teams from the SEC. "IF" Georgia loses and other favorites win here is how I see it shaking out

#1 Alabama vs #4 OSU (No way they put Georgia right back against Bama)
#2 Michigan vs #3 Georgia

This is worst case for Cincy as they must have Georgia beat Alabama or an OSU loss.
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Danny Deck
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10:57a, 12/2/21
Lots of speculation that the committee really just uses some advanced stats to set the ranking. Everything else is just for TV.

Pretty sure the CFB Matrix guy nails it each time.

I think we're in good shape to be the 3 seed with a win.
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CaliforniaCowboy
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In reply to Danny Deck • 11:43a, 12/2/21
Danny Deck said:
Lots of speculation that the committee really just uses some advanced stats to set the ranking. Everything else is just for TV.

Pretty sure the CFB Matrix guy nails it each time.

I think we're in good shape to be the 3 seed with a win.
yep.... it doesn't matter whether you're deserving, it only matters what kind of play-off product that they want to give to us.

very, sad time for the sport.
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Danny Deck
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In reply to CaliforniaCowboy • 12:26p, 12/2/21
That's not what I said.

You can look at Strength of Schedule, quality wins, top 25 wins and game control and pretty well do the ranking yourself.

This is probably why people who have continued to do the BCS formula have landed on the same 4 teams as the committee, they're basically doing what the computers say.

This year we're hopefully going to get 3 new teams in the playoffs.
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GumbyFromPokeyLand
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12:47p, 12/2/21
There's really no historical evidence the committee favors either a brand or a conference. There is historical evidence that if you can win your P5 conference with 1 loss, you're in.
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CaliforniaCowboy
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In reply to GumbyFromPokeyLand • 3:47p, 12/2/21
GumbyFromPokeyLand said:
There is historical evidence that if you can win your P5 conference with 1 loss, you're in.
there is also historical evidence that if you can win your P5 conference with 1 loss you're NOT in too.

2017 and the TCU 2014 season.

Most seasons are pretty cut-n-dry with no other real teams qualified to be in the final 4.... this year may end up that way too... we'll find out on Saturday.
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GumbyFromPokeyLand
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In reply to CaliforniaCowboy • 7:14p, 12/2/21
CaliforniaCowboy said:
GumbyFromPokeyLand said:
There is historical evidence that if you can win your P5 conference with 1 loss, you're in.
there is also historical evidence that if you can win your P5 conference with 1 loss you're NOT in too.

2017 and the TCU 2014 season.

Most seasons are pretty cut-n-dry with no other real teams qualified to be in the final 4.... this year may end up that way too... we'll find out on Saturday.


There has never been a 1-loss conference champion left out in favor of a 1-loss P5 non-champ. Never. A 1-loss P5 conference champ has only been left out once when tOSU was left out over an undefeated Notre Dame. TCU in 2014 does not count since they did not have a 13th data point and a CCG. 2014 is not comparable to 2021.

If you are a 1-loss P5 champ, you're in.
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CaliforniaCowboy
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In reply to GumbyFromPokeyLand • 8:24a, 12/3/21
that's what I said.

most times there are no real alternatives to the favorite 4 (i.e., there is no 1-loss P5 champ competing for a spot like there is this year).

ND beat out a P5 team, like we both said, and TCU DOES COUNT, because they were conf champs... using "data points" is exactly my point point that the committee will do whatever the hell they want to do, and make up any excuse they want to make up.

There are only these two examples - the other years these situations (like we have at this point this year) did not exist.

I don't trust any committee that uses criteria that they create (like SOS, and record against teams that they think are good).

Saturday will go a long way towards sorting it all out. Pokes are up first.
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GumbyFromPokeyLand
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In reply to CaliforniaCowboy • 9:36a, 12/3/21
CaliforniaCowboy said:
that's what I said.

most times there are no real alternatives to the favorite 4 (i.e., there is no 1-loss P5 champ competing for a spot like there is this year).

ND beat out a P5 team, like we both said, and TCU DOES COUNT, because they were conf champs... using "data points" is exactly my point point that the committee will do whatever the hell they want to do, and make up any excuse they want to make up.

There are only these two examples - the other years these situations (like we have at this point this year) did not exist.

I don't trust any committee that uses criteria that they create (like SOS, and record against teams that they think are good).

Saturday will go a long way towards sorting it all out. Pokes are up first.


There is only one issue and thus one take away.

The committee has NEVER excluded a 1-loss P5 conference champion (with a CCG win) in favor of a 1-loss non champion, or a G5 team in the history of the CFP.

If OSU wins tomorrow, we'll be a 1-loss conference champ, and at most there will only be 4 1-loss or less P5 conference champs.

Further, the committee has never eliminated a 1-loss P5 conference champion based on criteria they create.

Going by history alone, there's a 100% chance we're in if we win. There's really no debate.
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CaliforniaCowboy
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In reply to GumbyFromPokeyLand • 9:57a, 12/3/21
There had also never been an undefeated non-P5 team ranked in the top 4.

So the committee is going to screw somebody if all things remain even.

I don't think there has ever been two one-loss SEC teams in the top 4 either, where there were other 1-loss P5 teams.

So there is no real historical perspective.

I hope you're correct for our sake.... I hope Cincy wins and is in. UGA has a history of folding in big games against Bama, so I hope one of them gets booted.

We may never know.... like I said it depends on this Saturday. There's really nothing to debate at this time... but go ahead and repeat yourself again.
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GumbyFromPokeyLand
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In reply to CaliforniaCowboy • 10:28a, 12/3/21
CaliforniaCowboy said:
There had also never been an undefeated non-P5 team ranked in the top 4.

So the committee is going to screw somebody if all things remain even.

I don't think there has ever been two one-loss SEC teams in the top 4 either, where there were other 1-loss P5 teams.

So there is no real historical perspective.

I hope you're correct for our sake.... I hope Cincy wins and is in. UGA has a history of folding in big games against Bama, so I hope one of them gets booted.

We may never know.... like I said it depends on this Saturday. There's really nothing to debate at this time... but go ahead and repeat yourself again.

Preliminary rankings without championship results are totally and absolutely meaningless. Not one team has ever qualified beaded on a preliminary ranking.
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CaliforniaCowboy
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In reply to GumbyFromPokeyLand • 10:37a, 12/3/21
GumbyFromPokeyLand said:


Preliminary rankings without championship results are totally and absolutely meaningless. Not one team has ever qualified beaded on a preliminary ranking.
yes. Agreed. I've made that point in each of my posts.

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GumbyFromPokeyLand
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In reply to CaliforniaCowboy • 12:33p, 12/3/21
CaliforniaCowboy said:
GumbyFromPokeyLand said:


Preliminary rankings without championship results are totally and absolutely meaningless. Not one team has ever qualified beaded on a preliminary ranking.
yes. Agreed. I've made that point in each of my posts.



Which, in case you missed it, is why Cincy at 4 is meaningless. We win, we'll pass them. Bet the house.
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CaliforniaCowboy
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In reply to GumbyFromPokeyLand • 3:33p, 12/3/21
GumbyFromPokeyLand said:
CaliforniaCowboy said:
GumbyFromPokeyLand said:


Preliminary rankings without championship results are totally and absolutely meaningless. Not one team has ever qualified beaded on a preliminary ranking.
yes. Agreed. I've made that point in each of my posts.



Which, in case you missed it, is why Cincy at 4 is meaningless. We win, we'll pass them. Bet the house.
Could be... but there's that committee agenda stuff... Cincy should be #2, but that's not the outcome and the playoff that the committee wants to present to us.

Their show, their rules... and they make them us as they go along... with data points and other bullcrap
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