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Oklahoma State Football

An Interesting Perspective: Gundy Recruits How NFL Scouting Departments Draft

March 2, 2021
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Every year, no matter how good Oklahoma State football is, there are some critics of head coach Mike Gundy’s recruiting tactics and success. The “success” aspect is very opinionated because there are some who talk to players, break down film and truly evaluate talent to form opinions and then there are some who look at stars or rankings and quickly make assumptions on recruits/commits that Mike Gundy and recruiting director Todd Bradford are bringing in. 

I am one who does not look at outside sources other than my eyes to form opinions or thoughts on recruits.

It has been made clear that Mike Gundy is the same way. And from a recent tweet from Daniel Jeremiah, one of the top NFL Draft analysts and former NFL scout, it appears that NFL personnel departments carry the same mentality when looking to draft players. 

Jeremiah says that “NFL Personnel departments don't care about college awards” and that “It doesn't carry any weight”. 

When I read the tweet, the first thing I thought of was Gundy. 

I mean, does a coach who does not care about stars, trophies, offers or accolades sound familiar? He has an office in the West End Zone overlooking Boone Pickens Stadium right now. 

When scouting departments are looking at a player they want to draft, they are never getting on google to look up if a player was first team All-Conference or if he won any awards for his position while in college. The same way works for Gundy and co. when evaluating. If he finds a players’ film he likes, he’s not looking up what offers he holds or what watchlists the kid is on. 

Pat Kinnison - Chief Photographer

This is also why Oklahoma State is, quite often, the first offer for kids. The staff is extremlely talented at recognizing and projecting talent, even in players as young as 14 or 15 years old. There are a lot of times that Oklahoma State will be the first or one of the first offers and then that player quickly picks up 15 offers in the next month or two and becomes a national recruit.

There have been instances where I have had conversations with other recruiting reporters of “blue blood” schools who have actually told me that the recruiting staff at their school is waiting for a kid to pick up more offers so its justified that they offer. They don’t want to be the first. But why?

Some schools don’t want to be the first to offer a kid and have that kid end up not being the real deal or flame out during the recruiting process. They are scared of their own evaluations and question if they trust them.

Oklahoma State is nothing like this. They trust their eyes and evaluations with full conviction and believe in everyone on staff.

As far as to why the NFL teams dont care about awards, there is a simple reason: They are not the ones who are voting on it. It is media, other coaches, peers, voting boards, etc. NFL coaches and scouts watch film, put players through testing, and have extensive interviews. After that they will put together a board of how they rank players, which sounds very similiar to a college recruiting staff. With Oklahoma State, if they think that a player is worthy of being above someone else, they will do it. They dont look at stars to see how they should rank them, which some other schools certainly put weight into. 

When you take in the staff’s eye for talent and match it with Rob Glass’s strength and nutrition program, you breed stars.

Discussion from...

An Interesting Perspective: Gundy Recruits How NFL Scouting Departments Draft

4,838 Views | 18 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by CaliforniaCowboy
Orangeheart72
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It obviously seems to work.....or we wouldn't have averaged 2nd place in the conference over the last 12 years or whatever.
thetruth
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don't think we've "averaged" 2nd, but top 4 is likely.

the error in this whole article is that the people ranking the HS players are not basing their ranking on what hs all-team the player was on. but to at least some degree they are looking at video and using their eyes just like our coaches.
to much politics and such for kids that make some all-team in college (as well as hs). heisman isn't the best player in cfb, its the qb/offensive skill player at the blue blood who's playing in the cfb playoff.

an example would be my own son. he was named to the large school all-state baseball team in oklahoma after his senior year. played in the all-state game and was the starting shortstop. was he the best ss in hs that year? was he one of the best 12-15 players in the state that year. not by a long shot.
Orangeheart72
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There was an article that broke this down for Big XII teams. We have averaged the second highest conference finish under OU. If I recall, UT was 3rd it seems like. It wasn't my calculation.
Marshall Levenson
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thetruth said:

don't think we've "averaged" 2nd, but top 4 is likely.

the error in this whole article is that the people ranking the HS players are not basing their ranking on what hs all-team the player was on. but to at least some degree they are looking at video and using their eyes just like our coaches.
to much politics and such for kids that make some all-team in college (as well as hs). heisman isn't the best player in cfb, its the qb/offensive skill player at the blue blood who's playing in the cfb playoff.

an example would be my own son. he was named to the large school all-state baseball team in oklahoma after his senior year. played in the all-state game and was the starting shortstop. was he the best ss in hs that year? was he one of the best 12-15 players in the state that year. not by a long shot.
I can see why some people might think that, but it's just not the case (majority). A lot of recruiting rankings are a popularity contest. Recruiting rankings are very biased to certain areas and kinds of schools. I see it everyday. They are also biased to what kind of offers a kid has and where he is committed if they commit early. A good example would be Eli Russ. He was rated as a mid 4 star and then committed to OSU and was dropped to a 3 star... during April... when there is no football being played. Does that make sense? He was rated a 93 but was moved to an 87 when he committed. Again... this was while there was no football so how could he have gone down? This happens with recruits everywhere. Another example from literally the other day. Cade Klubnik, QB from Austin Westlake was ranked in the 200s at the end of the season in December. His rating was actually going DOWN going into yo January but last week he was offered by Clemson and committed a few days later... HE IS NOW A TOP 75 PLAYER IN THE NATION WITH A 96 RATING. How does that make any sense???? Recruiting sites are politics, they want to make the big hitters look good.
thetruth
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and yet the "big hitters" win more games, championships, and send more (by percentage) players to the league. 4 and 5 star players by percentage end up in the NFL.
CaliforniaCowboy
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but who sends the most 3-star and even no-star players to the NFL?

a no-star should never ever make the league if the rankings were worth a grain of salt.
Joe Khatib
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Hey Cali, The Big Bad Texas Longhorns have had the first or second best recruiting rankings in the Big XII according to the Recruiting Sites for the last ten years, yet they are now on their third Head Coach since 2013.
thetruth
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i have no idea. three star players do make it to the nfl. as do others, including no star players. but, and this is the point, a much, much higher percentage of 4/5 star players make it to the nfl. its much more difficult to predict 3 star than 4/5 star players potential.

it doesn't matter really, osu isn't likely to start filling their roster with 4/5 star players anyway. and, just as likely we'll continue to struggle to win championships and actually ever compete for a playoff spot.
CaliforniaCowboy
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don't lose hope, we beat the goons once in a while.... we just need to beat Iowa State in the same year that we beat the goons.... (wink)

.... but we won't do it until we put the passing QB in.... that's just the way it is.
Guitar54
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We may breed stars but we're not breeding enough to win championships. Now more than ever, college football is all about the haves and have nots. We already know 3 of the teams that will be in the playoffs for the NC. It's getting boring.
NJAggie
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thetruth said:

i have no idea. three star players do make it to the nfl. as do others, including no star players. but, and this is the point, a much, much higher percentage of 4/5 star players make it to the nfl. its much more difficult to predict 3 star than 4/5 star players potential.

it doesn't matter really, osu isn't likely to start filling their roster with 4/5 star players anyway. and, just as likely we'll continue to struggle to win championships and actually ever compete for a playoff spot.
Yeah if you award 100 5 stars and 300 4 stars, and the next 5,000 guys are 3 stars you're going to get better results out of those top two groups. The reality is most of the guys in NFL are 3 stars just as most of the guys playing college football are 3 stars. And a lot of the 5 & 4 stars that make the NFL don't stick for long if at all, but they still count in that great rating for the group.
Danny Deck
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This article discusses what factors would lead someone to be drafted who was lowly rated as a recruit.

https://www.bannersociety.com/2014/5/12/20706985/nfl-draft-blue-chip-recruits

Outlier physical change being by far the most common reason. Discussing Khalil Mack who was a 2 star recruit drafted in the first round: He was also 6'1 and 215, according to the linked article. Four years later, Mack was 6'3, 251. Those 35 pounds of added muscle are important.

How are recruiting services supposed to account for that?
CaliforniaCowboy
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Danny Deck said:

This article discusses what factors would lead someone to be drafted who was lowly rated as a recruit.

https://www.bannersociety.com/2014/5/12/20706985/nfl-draft-blue-chip-recruits

Outlier physical change being by far the most common reason. Discussing Khalil Mack who was a 2 star recruit drafted in the first round: He was also 6'1 and 215, according to the linked article. Four years later, Mack was 6'3, 251. Those 35 pounds of added muscle are important.

How are recruiting services supposed to account for that?
yes... that is exactly my point. They can't account for that, they just take wild-arsed guesses based on popularity and which teams offer a kid.

The rankings only show (at best), which kids matured early enabling them to dominate other non-matured and non-athletic high school kids. The number of kds rated 4 or 5 star is random and arbitrary too (from year to year). Overall talent levels of an entire class change from year to year, and it is largely ignored by the services.

The 4 and 5 star may be able to contribute more quickly, and occasionally a few are absolute freak athletes (but it happens with kids like Wallace and Tyreek Hill too).

There a not enough kids ranked 4 and 5 star to go around, so most coaches are left to sort through the plethora of lower rated kids to find the players with the highest developmental potential.
Danny Deck
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It's not exactly a "wild arsed guess," but there are obviously a lot of limitations. It's why no school is devoid of busts.

Rating kids out to a decimal point isn't all that useful except to drive conversation during an interminable off season. On the other hand broadly using the rankings to put teams in tiers can be useful as expectation setting. Our recruiting is probably somewhat better than where we actually end up in the rankings, but we're in the right tier, which is not the "competing for playoff spots" tier. And even then, the primary value is as a discussion point.

CaliforniaCowboy
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Danny Deck said:

It's not exactly a "wild arsed guess," but there are obviously a lot of limitations. It's why no school is devoid of busts.

Rating kids out to a decimal point isn't all that useful except to drive conversation during an interminable off season. On the other hand broadly using the rankings to put teams in tiers can be useful as expectation setting. Our recruiting is probably somewhat better than where we actually end up in the rankings, but we're in the right tier, which is not the "competing for playoff spots" tier. And even then, the primary value is as a discussion point.


I disagree. When we play a passing QB then we are ALWAYS "competing for a playoff spot". We just have to win bedlam to achieve it... but we're playing for it (with it all on the line - often, just not since Weeden and Rudolph departed)

Our problem has as much to do with keeping kids on campus. We need a better coach, and a different OC, but other than that....

thetruth
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do you have any bonafide statistical info to back up your claim that 4/5 stars don't "stick" in the NFL? no, you don't because it's simply not true.
CaliforniaCowboy
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thetruth said:

do you have any bonafide statistical info to back up your claim that 4/5 stars don't "stick" in the NFL? no, you don't because it's simply not true.
well... most of them don't even make it to the NFL, so there's that
CaliforniaCowboy
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thetruth said:

do you have any bonafide statistical info to back up your claim that 4/5 stars don't "stick" in the NFL? no, you don't because it's simply not true.
this article does not directly address your point, but it's still sort of interesting...

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2019/6/4/18617865/five-star-recruits-nfl-draft-history
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