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Updated: Oregon and Utah Need A Place to Land, Time for New Commissioner to Get to Work

June 30, 2022
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STILLWATER – Just an update after San Jose Mercury sportswriter and Pac-12 beat expert Jon Wilner broke the story that conference realignment, an annual summer blockbuster, is back for 2022. You might want to give Oklahoma State head football coach Mike Gundy some credit too. Gundy has never stepped off his stance that conference realignment wasn’t done and that there would be more movement sooner rather than later, no pun intended. The news is that USC and UCLA are looking to join the Big Ten in time for the 2024 football season and the 2024-25 academic calendar. Wow!

An update on the Oklahoma State end of this. School President Dr. Kayse Shrum was in Oklahoma City on business and was back in Stillwater later in the day. She was being kept aware of the news. Athletic director Chad Weiberg and deputy athletic director Reid Sigmon was also in the athletics center on Thursday. The department’s resident expert on the Pac-12, senior associate athletic director Kevin Klintworth was not in the office, but was in contact with Weiberg. Klintworth worked at Cal-Berkeley and while not surprised with the move of USC and UCLA still found it interesting especially since UCLA and Cal-Berkeley are in the same system.  I bet Cal people feel a little like Oklahoma State folks felt last summer. 

One athletics staffer said while it did not feel like last summer you could tell some tension in the air. Last year the threat level went to DEFCON one. This move today brought it up somewhere between DEFCON three and four. The movement of the Trojans and the Bruins could trigger the final dominoes in bringing together a super level of college football and schools like Oklahoma State want to get a seat at the table.

What allowed USC and UCLA to depart is that the Pac-12 grant-in-rights concludes after the 2023 season when the league’s current multi-media rights deal concludes. One Pac-12 administrator claimed his conference had just been Sooner’d and Horn’d. They were. Just like Oklahoma and Texas held any future in the Big 12, such as a new grant-in-rights agreement at an arm’s length; USC and UCLA also did the same with regards to an extension of the Pac-12 grant-in-rights. When will conference officials and other schools administrators learn they are being passed over for a better deal.

Wilner claimed that he thinks this is a FOX Television inspired move as they paused the negotiations with the Big Ten and the pause may have been to get the Los Angeles market into the Big Ten before finalizing the new television deal. FOX, in essence, maneuvers a deal to strengthen the Big Ten much like ESPN was in behind the Texas and Oklahoma move into the SEC.

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Lincoln Riley is going to coach in a real football conference afterall.. 

Okay, as Oklahoma State fans you don’t care about USC and UCLA. It will be fun seeing former OU head coach Lincoln Riley go to a league where he may have to play more than two or three legitimate strong football programs. He will see some competition in the Big Ten. What is important to Oklahoma State University President Dr. Kayse Shrum, vice-president Kyle Wray, athletics director Chad Weiberg, and Gundy is getting Oklahoma State in the best possible place.

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For Yormark, time to get to work.

I would advise new Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark to drop everything, even the last several weeks of Beyonce’ World Tour and get to work on the future of the Big 12. With the announcement of USC and UCLA going east to the Big Ten, he needs to either beef up his conference or he’s likely going to see some of his programs look for some other options.

Just exactly what are the best options for Oklahoma State with regard to the Big 12 or any other development:

Option No. 1

By far the best option for Oklahoma State is to get the SEC to expand again and be one of the teams to get in. SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey may see this development and get antsy to add some more to the SEC. Dr. Shrum has stayed in touch with Sankey and let him know that her school is eager to compete in that league. The SEC and Big Ten are now way in front of the other conferences that were known as Power Five. If you aren’t in either of those two conferences, then you are in a precarious position.

Option No. 2

Oklahoma State needs to hope and see the SEC, Big Ten, and other legitimate schools that are in the top 25-30 in all of college football come together to forge a super association of college football. The schools in the SEC and Big Ten, even Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, and Missouri will be included because they are in the umbrella of the SEC and Big Ten. Outside you would have Clemson, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Baylor, Miami (Fla), Florida State, Oregon, Washington, and Utah that would seem to be legitimate members of that super football league. Unfortunately, this enhanced conference might be somewhat skinny, skinny enough that some good football schools would not be included.  

Option No. 3

The Big 12 and the Pac-12 finally get together. This was supposed to happen, was even very close seven-years ago, but now it would be out of desperation. I would not advise keeping everybody. Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, West Virginia, UCF, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State, Colorado. Why leave out TCU, California, Arizona, Arizona State? I don’t know how much football value they truly have. Get out the spread sheets, television ratings history, and make decisions accordingly.

Option No. 4

This is my favorite if Oklahoma State isn’t brought in to the SEC or a super football league isn’t formed. Simply go get Utah (best football program in Pac-12) and Oregon (most valuable and most watched program in the Pac-12) and bring them into the Big 12. With Utah you get the “Holy War” rivalry, the best football rivalry in the Rockies and west. Utah plays football like a high level Big 12 program. Oregon brings all the flash and a big brand courtesy of Nike. What about Washington? Sorry, only taking two and they aren’t in the top two.

Discussion from...

Updated: Oregon and Utah Need A Place to Land, Time for New Commissioner to Get to Work

10,068 Views | 62 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Joe Khatib
NJAggie
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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

NJAggie said:

Expansion in and of itself is not something that increases revenue so the SEC expanding with anyone on the table in the Big XII or PAC is highly unlikely. Yes we are getting two superconferences, but they are looking to maintain the full 131 schools in the group if it splits away, and have it as a backdrop for the CFP they'll always win.

The B1G will probably grab another pair of PAC schools (UW & Oregon). Our leadership just needs to take the best group of PAC schools that apply up the number they think they can sell to the networks.


If the SEC has determined 16 is the max under any and every scenario, you're probably correct. But who would ever make that bet? Not me.
It's not about a number it's about the available schools being equal or more valuable than the payout. Coming into this there were only 2 schools left that could be adds for the level of money the B1G & SEC were at. ND is one, the other was USC (& co).

USC & co have value for the B1G that only USC would have for the SEC. The B1G is still getting big money for cable subs, and adding the B1G to everyone in CA, WA, & OR brings in a lot of money on the network side so the broadcast deal isn't increasing that much with the addition, it's the cable subs side this money is coming from. In comparison, KU brings little and what 2M subs?

The SEC doesn't have that multiplier thus they have no real options to boost their numbers. While they could add people there's no one that you can say yeah that's an add that keeps them at $75M or raises the payout.
NJAggie
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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

Here's what OSU (and the B12?) should do.

Wait. If the B1G or SEC wants to expand further to 18 or 20 teams to create 2 super conferences, the other will follow suit. In that case, I'd expect a call asking us to join one of the two. If neither makes a move (before the B1G tv deal is finalized) to expand further, then both will be at 16. The B12 should then add 4 PAC teams (UT, OR, ASU and AZ?) to create our own 16 team league. At that point, I'd expect the ACC (ND + ??) to follow suit.

Voila, four 16 team conferences, 64 school premier Division of college football.
No one is looking for a set number of teams or worried about anyone else.

The B1G is probably working on ND right now, and if they can get them in then Stanford, Oregon, & Washington get added. If not then probably just Oregon & Washington as they need at least 4 WC teams for scheduling, and as I noted earlier those two states coming in with CA make a lot of cable subs for the B1G.

The Big XII just needs to make sure they are choosing the right number of schools. We don't want too many PT slots, and we need the amount that will help bring inventory that will get the money we're wanting. The PAC schools in some amount will help do that as we would be like the B1G able to provide all day football to our partners, but at say 60% of the cost.

It sounds like the PAC TV deal was nearly finished and had come out better than expected, but still not enough to sway USC not to move.
GumbyFromPokeyLand
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I don't think that's the SEC/B1G calculus at this point. It's whether they think an upper-division of college football is best and most valuable (per school) with 32, 40, 64, etc schools instead of the current 130. IMO, neither conference wants to subsidize and compete with 50 or more teams that will add very little to the overall landscape and value of BIG TIME college football.
CaliforniaCowboy
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Polston31 said:

Remember you doing that same thing?
nope, I never did anything like that.

I asked if your mother would approve of your commentary and nasty behavior towards others, because mothers (generally speaking) want the best for their children and help them mold and model their conduct.. I did not ask you if you got that nasty disposition from your mother - which is something completely different and was the essence of your nasty retort..

No, my mother did not give me that opinion that you disagree with.

You didn't ask if my mother would agree with my opinion, and I don't know and I cannot ask her.

CaliforniaCowboy
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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

I don't think that's the SEC/B1G calculus at this point. It's whether they think an upper-division of college football is best and most valuable (per school) with 32, 40, 64, etc schools instead of the current 130. IMO, neither conference wants to subsidize and compete with 50 or more teams that will add very little to the overall landscape and value of BIG TIME college football.
which is to say, that the SEC/B1G are saying, we want all the money, and nobody else should get any... damn the football playing world.

if the existing NCAA structure breaks down completely, then the Non-super league teams should refuse to play those 32 teams that break away. Wish the luck and divorce from them.

I suspect that they would quickly find that college football is not the NFL, and their only followings would be from those respective schools. I think that the rest of the college football playing world could quickly bring them to their knees.
Polston31
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You brought moms into it. What about the other stuff? No comment of that? Figures
Pistolp
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It'd be nice if you guys would look up average tv viewership of teams before you speculate which teams the Big 12 might add. Population "markets" are irrelevant. It is all about tv viewership; that's what drives the current market. Adjust your thinking.

OSU is in the top 3 or 4 in average tv viewership of all teams not already in the BIG/SEC, and our bowl game vs ND was the 6th highest tv audience of all bowl games that year, so we have a very legitimate shot at the SEC as one of the "best of the rest" right now. On the other hand, some of the teams being suggested for the Big 12 have lower average tv viewership, and I don't think they would be seriously considered.
CaliforniaCowboy
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most of your comment has already been debunked in the last alignment discussion.

OSU's "market presence", was based off of games played against OU and TX, and within the relative context of the old B12, which had a somewhat strong playoff presence.

without those factors, OSU's value drops considerably. (or so the prognosticated projects go).

regional and local TV markets are still just as relevant as they have always been. The Pac12 just lost the Los Angeles market to the B1G, they did not only lose the "USC market" and the "UCLA market", whatever the heck that is.

The LA market, for example, consists of many, many fans of other Pac12 teams, and various other teams, include OU and OSU, Mich, tOSU and many, many others. The LA area market that watched "Pac12" games are like to switch to which ever conference that their team plays in and not follow the Trojans and Bruins.

the concept of "markets" is very complex and not a simplistic one-size-fits all model that you described.
GumbyFromPokeyLand
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Oregon and Washington are formally applying to B1G. If accepted, the SEC WILL make a move.
NJAggie
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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

I don't think that's the SEC/B1G calculus at this point. It's whether they think an upper-division of college football is best and most valuable (per school) with 32, 40, 64, etc schools instead of the current 130. IMO, neither conference wants to subsidize and compete with 50 or more teams that will add very little to the overall landscape and value of BIG TIME college football.
No, they aren't. They are building their conferences to max out value. Every exit plan seriously proposed includes all 131 schools leaving. They still plan on using the other schools and conferences for ooc games and as the general backdrop to the sport they'll dominate.

All that specific number of teams is sports writer pipe dreams. It's about max payout for your conference. The SEC has probably reached it, and the B1G is just minus ND.
NJAggie
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CaliforniaCowboy said:

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

I don't think that's the SEC/B1G calculus at this point. It's whether they think an upper-division of college football is best and most valuable (per school) with 32, 40, 64, etc schools instead of the current 130. IMO, neither conference wants to subsidize and compete with 50 or more teams that will add very little to the overall landscape and value of BIG TIME college football.
which is to say, that the SEC/B1G are saying, we want all the money, and nobody else should get any... damn the football playing world.

if the existing NCAA structure breaks down completely, then the Non-super league teams should refuse to play those 32 teams that break away. Wish the luck and divorce from them.

I suspect that they would quickly find that college football is not the NFL, and their only followings would be from those respective schools. I think that the rest of the college football playing world could quickly bring them to their knees.
You can't afford to do that because the CFP money in the expanded playoff is going to be too much money to be holier than thou. If the projections are right the Big XII would be close to matching their media rights in CFP money.
NJAggie
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CaliforniaCowboy said:

most of your comment has already been debunked in the last alignment discussion.

OSU's "market presence", was based off of games played against OU and TX, and within the relative context of the old B12, which had a somewhat strong playoff presence.

without those factors, OSU's value drops considerably. (or so the prognosticated projects go).

regional and local TV markets are still just as relevant as they have always been. The Pac12 just lost the Los Angeles market to the B1G, they did not only lose the "USC market" and the "UCLA market", whatever the heck that is.

The LA market, for example, consists of many, many fans of other Pac12 teams, and various other teams, include OU and OSU, Mich, tOSU and many, many others. The LA area market that watched "Pac12" games are like to switch to which ever conference that their team plays in and not follow the Trojans and Bruins.

the concept of "markets" is very complex and not a simplistic one-size-fits all model that you described.
No it wasn't debunked. Our numbers with the OU/UT games involved was higher, but our overall numbers without those games was still the best in the Big XII, and right at the top 20. BU/OSU twice last year delivered high ratings games. Our TV is good. Now is it join SEC good?

Probably not since you need to be closer to OU numbers to be SEC good. Which is why I'd say the SEC is done expanding for now. However, after 5 or so years in the new Big XII with more access to network games our numbers may be good enough to get a look form the B2.
GumbyFromPokeyLand
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So, in the SECs perfect world, the top level of college football has 130 teams. All vying for the same pot of gold.

Baloney.
GumbyFromPokeyLand
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The updated projected per school payout for the B1G is now $100mm per year. No way college FBS football remains at 130 teams. The SEC/B1G realize this. They will make moves to "direct" the landscape to a number of schools that combines the most of a good product with the value of the product. More moves by the SEC and B1G.
CaliforniaCowboy
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NJAggie said:


You can't afford to do that because the CFP money in the expanded playoff is going to be too much money to be holier than thou. If the projections are right the Big XII would be close to matching their media rights in CFP money.
I don't believe that to be true. The total money will be great, but the distribution will not be equal, and for most of the rest of college football, likely not really worth the effort. If they even expand to 12, then it will most likely be 4 from the B1G, 4 from the SEC, one for ND, and one for ACC and maybe one for the B12, and one TBD.

screw em.... the NIL chase is not worth it, none of those headaches are worth playoff money. You'd have to spend $40 million to get $10 million back.
NJAggie
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Yes it is. Every statement from SEC or B1G leadership has been for all FBS schools to breakaway. They don't need a small pool, they already have the money. They need a backdrop of CFB with as many or more schools. The separation moneywise is in place with the two conferences and they don't need to share with anyone their conference money.
NJAggie
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CaliforniaCowboy said:

NJAggie said:


You can't afford to do that because the CFP money in the expanded playoff is going to be too much money to be holier than thou. If the projections are right the Big XII would be close to matching their media rights in CFP money.
I don't believe that to be true. The total money will be great, but the distribution will not be equal, and for most of the rest of college football, likely not really worth the effort. If they even expand to 12, then it will most likely be 4 from the B1G, 4 from the SEC, one for ND, and one for ACC and maybe one for the B12, and one TBD.

screw em.... the NIL chase is not worth it, none of those headaches are worth playoff money. You'd have to spend $40 million to get $10 million back.
There has been no attempt to change the payout structure for the CFP. The only change would be if the PAC goes away then the autonomy pool gets split 4 ways instead of 5. You don't have to spend any money, you just have to be in the CFP pool.

They're not working on a plan to change the world, just working to get their schools and conferences more TV money.

So they're going to have more teams and more conference auto bids in the playoff. And, they will have a lot more money. And will we make less in appearance money than the B2? Sure, But we'll still get a good base payout which is where most of the money (right now $67M a year - and likely to double at least) and a guaranteed bonus and some years will sneak in two (currently $6m again likely to double). So yes you would be foolish to walk away from the CFP to teach the SEC and B1G a lesson.
NJAggie
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Looks like Oregon and Washington are getting legal partners.


LS1Z28
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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

Oregon and Washington are formally applying to B1G. If accepted, the SEC WILL make a move.
It sounds like the B1G will stay at 16 for now unless they can get Notre Dame. If that happens, it will likely cause a domino effect where both leagues add more schools.



NJAggie
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Now this guy has some interesting destinations for the PAC schools:


CaliforniaCowboy
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meanwhile... out West they're project the 12Pac is more valuable than the B12, and they will poach schools like OSU...

this is from Athlon sports

Pac-12 Expansion Candidates to Replace USC and UCLA

Oklahoma State - Oklahoma State was another program mentioned prominently last summer in potential expansion for the Pac-12. In the new-look Big 12, the Cowboys would be one of the top programs available and interested in a move to a bigger and better conference. Oklahoma State has been a consistent winner under coach Mike Gundy and hasn't recorded a losing season on the gridiron since 2005.

Pac-12 Expansion Candidates to Replace USC and UCLA (msn.com)
TeaTownCowboy
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I think the best option is get Colorado to move back, add Utah, and the two Zona schools and leave it at that. Personally I'm fine w/ what we have now and leave it at that but college sports is turning into a crackhead. The U$C and Ucla to B1G is doofy IMO. They can make football work, but it's still going to be a LOT of traveling if B1G doesn't add UW and OreGONE. But think of all the travel for the other sports teams, those poor saps will miss a ton of classes and projects due to travel. It's DOOFY!!!
GumbyFromPokeyLand
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CaliforniaCowboy said:

meanwhile... out West they're project the 12Pac is more valuable than the B12, and they will poach schools like OSU...

this is from Athlon sports

Pac-12 Expansion Candidates to Replace USC and UCLA

Oklahoma State - Oklahoma State was another program mentioned prominently last summer in potential expansion for the Pac-12. In the new-look Big 12, the Cowboys would be one of the top programs available and interested in a move to a bigger and better conference. Oklahoma State has been a consistent winner under coach Mike Gundy and hasn't recorded a losing season on the gridiron since 2005.

Pac-12 Expansion Candidates to Replace USC and UCLA (msn.com)


While I wouldn't rule anything out, that scenario is not only my least favorite, it's also least likely.
TUSKAPOKE
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OSU going west without any of the Texas connections is recruiting suicide. Think Nebraska. Can't do it. Got to have the BIG 12 kill the PAC 12 and take the best of the rest unless OSU goes to SEC then who gives a damn what happens to the rest. It is time for survival. There is no allegiance to the weak BIG 12 nor is there dishonor in looking out for # 1. GO POKES!!!
Pistolp
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Gawd I hope the Big 12 has more sense than to add Arizona and Arizona State just because they are one state over. Arizona has a smaller average tv audience than Tulsa. Think about that: right now Tulsa would be slightly better for a conference tv contract than Arizona. Arizona State is better, but not much. They have a decent tv market with Phoenix, unfortunately not that many people in that market watch either school. Moving from the PAC to the Big12 isn't going to change that.
NJAggie
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CaliforniaCowboy said:

meanwhile... out West they're project the 12Pac is more valuable than the B12, and they will poach schools like OSU...

this is from Athlon sports

Pac-12 Expansion Candidates to Replace USC and UCLA

Oklahoma State - Oklahoma State was another program mentioned prominently last summer in potential expansion for the Pac-12. In the new-look Big 12, the Cowboys would be one of the top programs available and interested in a move to a bigger and better conference. Oklahoma State has been a consistent winner under coach Mike Gundy and hasn't recorded a losing season on the gridiron since 2005.

Pac-12 Expansion Candidates to Replace USC and UCLA (msn.com)
I don't doubt it. But they aren't. Go look at their league TV number and their terrible. Cal has the 3rd best numbers. They're all 600k or less.

If FOX only has money to keep either Big XII or PAC on their channels they'll go Big XII. We beat them badly. What they have schools perceived as top notch, and Oregon, Washington, & ASU have some network appeal. So getting those schools in would help.

Dodd is reporting that one Big XII official when asked about taking PAC schools said "Why?" I don't think that kind of levity would have been voiced had the partners been pressing us to take schools. I do think we'll be taking some that ask to join based on what the feel is about the TV contract.

If you can kill the PAC that clears up slots for the Big XII. So taking enough to kill them would be a benefit. Although all of these states have too many Cali transplants in those big media markets with little interest in CFB so size isn't always what you want it to be. In OKC all the games will be viewed all day, in Phoenix they might watch if ASU is playing and they don't have anything better to do. So you could quickly get too many of them. The Cal numbers must be just bull headed local and alum interest because it sure isn't the great football they play. ASU/Washington/Oregon/Cal or Stanford might be the best 4 you could pull in.

The fact that the B1G backed off taking Or. & Wa tells me they aren't interested in them. Taking them wouldn't scare off ND, or in any way hinder the B1G in bringing in Stanford if ND demanded it. Also a lot of reporting now that USC is pushing no Oregon because they want to kill their ability to recruit against them. USC only wants 2 West Coast teams in the B1G.

One interesting under current is there may be some desire to deal with the ACC now. And the best way is to get a majority of teams to vote to disband that league and move elsewhere. So we could wind up being the Jr partner to the SEC/B1G in that event. Which would mean we probably would get say NC State, VT, Pitt, & Syracuse.

Lots of bluster out west but I don't think reality will play out that way. I think the main thing Big XII has is a solidified league while the PAC is still in flux and all it will take is one school to bolt.
Joe Khatib
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NJAggie said:

Now this guy has some interesting destinations for the PAC schools:



I am surprised he didn't have Cal headed to Beijing!
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