Why Can't Realignment Be More Simple? Straight Numbers and Analytics Make it Easy

ESPN (SEC) and FOX (B1G) will determine the optimal number of teams in a world with 2 super conferences which will likely make up a new top level of college football.

Thanks for pulling the numbers Robert.

I wish that gave me more comfort than it does. Unfortunately perception is not always about numbers. And if Oregon & Washington were locks for the B1G I think they'd be in, because their entry wouldn't effect ND. Yet that was why they were told no. And the longer they wait the more it will a tough sale for a net loss of revenue to teams that voted unanimously for USC/UCLA to say oh yeah we'll give up $6M a year to bring those two in.

Also Washington at least may be blocked from going anywhere without WSU. Legislation will be introduced next week to accomplish that.

I don't think the number of teams is in the equation as far as league size. The number that is of concern is per team payout. If you're increasing it you're in. If you're matching it you might be considered. Because the number of teams doesn't matter, the payout does.

The B1G and SEC have both talked about the breakaway and in every instance it's about taking all 131 schools out. They want to make way more money than everyone else, but they still need the rest of the schools as a prop to say look we're still a national thing, and all schools are in play. If they truly went to say a 48 team 2 league only product they'd cut off half the fans of cfb, and would have no claim to being THE champions, only the champion of a league. Also they need 3 ooc opponents every year, and would want the full interest and attention of cfb fans.

At this point I'd think the B2, a mid-tier conference, and then 6 or so lower tier conferences. Right now the Big XII schools get about $6.7M a year from the CFP, and G5 schools get about $300K. So the new expanded version should see them getting $15M and $1M. That's a small price to pay by the big boys to have their props.

And as you don't want the lower product that diluted, leaving OSU, BU, WVU, Washington, & Oregon in the mid-tier assures that it can produce the Cinderella that you need to keep the actual playoffs exciting.

Questions.
Honestly, do you think we have any shot at the sec?
Chad Weiberg is always saying we are in a good place. Just exactly, what does that mean?
Honest opinion please.

no money, no Cinderella.

Cincy was an anomaly that will not be repeated in the future world of NIL bucks and 100/mil annual payouts.

Thanks RA for the information and analysis. IMO OSU is behind the curve and is going to be left out IF there are only two super conferences (40 teams) and the ACC collapses because the "best" teams are raided for the SEC/B1G. The PAC 12 is on the deathbed like the Big 12 by raid. The weak are preyed upon and we are on the weak side. We probably have a better chance of survival if there are four conferences of 16 to 20 teams. The PAC 12 may beat us to the punch and raid the remaining Big 12 with a merger. They have been weak for a long time and the BIG 12 should have raided them last year instead of bringing in the teams that are now joining. The OSU future is being shaped and it does not seem like we have much if anything to say about it. Another therapy posting so thanks.....GO POKES!!!.

Those two questions were directed at Robert.
Also, we should be on the phone to espn, fox, big, sec. Surely we are. That way we would know exactly where we stand.
Also, it seems we are pumping a lot of money into football to simply be in a second tier division.

I'm more surprised at TCU numbers. Its a small private school with small enrollment. How did they get t.46 mill avg views?

rcfb said:

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I'm more surprised at TCU numbers. Its a small private school with small enrollment. How did they get t.46 mill avg views?

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TCU numbers are significantly skewed by a huge (7mm I think) audience when they played Ohio St in prime time 3 or 4 years ago.

I think you're likely underestimating the importance of the number of teams in the SEC/B1G equation if together they seek to become a league of their own. Too few teams leaves another media outlet enough quality teams for a media package(s) to detract from the SEC/B1G super league. If the SEC/B1G get enough teams, they can essentially create a Saturday monopoly. I don't think 32 is near enough teams.

Easy fix big 12 absorbs pac 12 and you have three big conferences, big 10, sec, big 12 top four teams in the top 20 from each conferences go into the 12 team playoff.....

The numbers don't lie! I agree that we are in great shape for the SEC. The ACC schools would owe up to $100MM each to leave before 2036. ESPN might be willing to pay that but why when OSU is available. It will all hinge on whether the SEC continues to expand.

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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I think you're likely underestimating the importance of the number of teams in the SEC/B1G equation if together they seek to become a league of their own. Too few teams leaves another media outlet enough quality teams for a media package(s) to detract from the SEC/B1G super league. If the SEC/B1G get enough teams, they can essentially create a Saturday monopoly. I don't think 32 is near enough teams.

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Just reading tea leaves and seeing what has been put out by "Credible" people, I think that number is around 48 which would be split up between the two Mega leagues, I am thinking old NFL vs AFL or nowadays NFC vs AFC! I always thank my lucky stars that Boone Pickens came along and pushed through with that vision!!!

Brett McMurphy is reporting the B12 is pursuing CU, UT, AZ, and ASU.

Why wouldn't the B12 pursue Ore and Wash?

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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I think you're likely underestimating the importance of the number of teams in the SEC/B1G equation if together they seek to become a league of their own. Too few teams leaves another media outlet enough quality teams for a media package(s) to detract from the SEC/B1G super league. If the SEC/B1G get enough teams, they can essentially create a Saturday monopoly. I don't think 32 is near enough teams.

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I think you're underestimating the per team payout. They are not going to add teams to get to 24 if the per team payout goes down.

NJAggie said:

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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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I think you're likely underestimating the importance of the number of teams in the SEC/B1G equation if together they seek to become a league of their own. Too few teams leaves another media outlet enough quality teams for a media package(s) to detract from the SEC/B1G super league. If the SEC/B1G get enough teams, they can essentially create a Saturday monopoly. I don't think 32 is near enough teams.

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I think you're underestimating the per team payout. They are not going to add teams to get to 24 if the per team payout goes down.

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And I don't think ESPN/Fox will pay the BIG money when over 75% of the FBS schools' fans don't give a crap about the SEC or B1G football and probably won't watch the two leagues and networks that ruined the sport. I know I won't. Will you?

Said differently, the 16-team SEC package in a top tier division with only 32 teams ain't worth near as much as a 16-team SEC package in a division with 130 teams. I think you gotta have more than 32 teams to come close to retaining the per team payouts.

Arizona 247 site is reporting Arizona, ASU, Utah, & CU will be meeting with Big XII on Tuesday. Lots of chatter out there today, but this is someone like Robert reporting this so it sounds promising. They also report that most talks have been about exiting, none about expanding.

I appreciate your confidence, but I don't see us making the cut. Just like Oregon and Washington we're just not quite valuable enough to meet or beat the current contract values in the B1G or SEC.

I think Arizona State is one of the teams you want. I'm not sure what they media partners are saying so we'll see as things unfold. But I do think you may want to take some schools to start the ones you do want to come moving. Say take Arizona State and Utah now and see what Oregon & Washington do in response. You don't want to pass on an option to take schools you do want and wait because given time they could decide to add 2 and stick together.

NJAggie said:

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I appreciate your confidence, but I don't see us making the cut. Just like Oregon and Washington we're just not quite valuable enough to meet or beat the current contract values in the B1G or SEC.

I think Arizona State is one of the teams you want. I'm not sure what they media partners are saying so we'll see as things unfold. But I do think you may want to take some schools to start the ones you do want to come moving. Say take Arizona State and Utah now and see what Oregon & Washington do in response. You don't want to pass on an option to take schools you do want and wait because given time they could decide to add 2 and stick together.

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Whoa. Oregon and Washington were not rejected, just placed on hold until Notre Dame decides what it going to do. If ND agrees, then the B1G will need to decide to add either 1 or 3 or 5 other teams. It would be premature to determine the optimal size until ND and their value is mixed into the stew. Which is why the SEC will also look to expand further to insure ESPN has as much or more content than Fox.

Ariz St is a big yawn.

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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Whoa. Oregon and Washington were not rejected, just placed on hold until Notre Dame decides what it going to do. If ND agrees, then the B1G will need to decide to add either 1 or 3 or 5 other teams. It would be premature to determine the optimal size until ND and their value is mixed into the stew. Which is why the SEC will also look to expand further to insure ESPN has as much or more content than Fox.

Ariz St is a big yawn.

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Notre Dame is already a partial member of the ACC, with a commitment to play 5 football games annually vs. ACC opponents through 2036.

If Notre Dame does decide to join a conference, the ACC would be the cleanest option. Because of the Fighting Irish's deal with the ACC, they're believed to be unable to join any other conference until the contract expires 2036

https://saturdayroad.com/notre-dame-fighting-irish/notre-dames-options-in-the-next-round-of-realignment-acc-b1g-or-neither/


Yet, within the ACC's grant of rights arrangement is a provision that affects Notre Dame. This comes not from a columnist or a talking head, but a dry and straightforward (read: personality-free) news service report from ESPN:

The ACC's new grant of rights also automatically extends Notre Dame's contract with the conference as a member in all sports but football through 2035-36, a source said. If the Irish forgo football independence in the next 20 years, they will be contracted to join the ACC.

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2022/07/01/prediction-notre-dame-is-not-going-to-join-a-conference-in-football/

It's very unclear how much it would cost ND to get out of its ACC commitments. I just heard the other day the only solid financial commitment is a GOR for all sports but football. If that's true, that's an easy buyout given they'll be making $100mm per year in the B1G. But who knows what's real or imagined. I'm just confident that the B1G is taking a run at ND. The outcome will determine who and how many more they'll seek to add - which will lead to more expansion by the SEC.

Robert Allen said:

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I'd be careful about adding any of the Pac-12 schools other than Oregon, Washington, or Utah. Oregon and Washington carry interest and draw attention on television and overall. Utah simply plays the best football in the Pac-12. They are a big boy football program. The rest don't carry much value. Arizona and Arizona State may bring the Phoenix market but the numbers they draw aren't high.

As I said in my story, I believe Oregon and Washington are headed to the Big Ten eventually and I think they know it. Not a lot of panic sensed from either outfit.

As my story communicated, I believe that this is heading to the Big Two conferences. SEC and Big Ten will balloon to 20-24 members and the television, the money, the playoff will all center around those 40-48 teams, maybe as high as 60, but I doubt it.

What gives me confidence is Oklahoma State should be involved in it.

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Robert, I saw an estimate that said the current top 25 schools from an eyeball or viewership perspective ADD value to a conference because they exceed some formula based upon analytics of value over estimated expenditure, essentially meaning that they bring in more than they take out in the mathematical breakdown that these networks use to determine if a school adds numbers to a potential contractual amount in the overall breakdown. We should thank our lucky stars that we are in that position being number 19 in number of eyeballs that are on your product!

what you are hearing cannot be true, and the link I provided suggest that a ND exit would be enormously expensive.

what you heard can not true, because as listed above, in italics, the GOR includes ND football - it's a 2-part GOR. It is a straight reading by "non-partisan", and it says ND football MUST join the ACC. No options.

if is NOT simply a GOR for non-football sports.

CaliforniaCowboy said:

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what you are hearing cannot be true, and the link I provided suggest that a ND exit would be enormously expensive.

what you heard can not true, because as listed above, in italics, the GOR includes ND football - it's a 2-part GOR. It is a straight reading by "non-partisan", and it says ND football MUST join the ACC. No options.

if is NOT simply a GOR for non-football sports.

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What's the break-up fee? Or penalty for breach?

There's no way a non-football members's fee to exit is in the same financial universe as a regular member.

Keaton it real tweets that sources say that OSU to sec is in the works. Hope his sources are correct!

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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NJAggie said:

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I appreciate your confidence, but I don't see us making the cut. Just like Oregon and Washington we're just not quite valuable enough to meet or beat the current contract values in the B1G or SEC.

I think Arizona State is one of the teams you want. I'm not sure what they media partners are saying so we'll see as things unfold. But I do think you may want to take some schools to start the ones you do want to come moving. Say take Arizona State and Utah now and see what Oregon & Washington do in response. You don't want to pass on an option to take schools you do want and wait because given time they could decide to add 2 and stick together.

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Whoa. Oregon and Washington were not rejected, just placed on hold until Notre Dame decides what it going to do. If ND agrees, then the B1G will need to decide to add either 1 or 3 or 5 other teams. It would be premature to determine the optimal size until ND and their value is mixed into the stew. Which is why the SEC will also look to expand further to insure ESPN has as much or more content than Fox.

Ariz St is a big yawn.

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Technically they weren't, but they only bring about $30M to the table each and you need to be at or above $100M. They are still waiting, but it will take either a desire to have 4 teams on the west coast or the B1G schools not minding taking a hit and say getting $95 instead of the $100 they are already banking on.

In fact multiple sources are reporting Stanford and Oregon have both approached the B1G about taking their value and not an equal share to get in.

So yeah they've been rejected. They were told no, come back later and we'll see.

CaliforniaCowboy said:

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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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Whoa. Oregon and Washington were not rejected, just placed on hold until Notre Dame decides what it going to do. If ND agrees, then the B1G will need to decide to add either 1 or 3 or 5 other teams. It would be premature to determine the optimal size until ND and their value is mixed into the stew. Which is why the SEC will also look to expand further to insure ESPN has as much or more content than Fox.

Ariz St is a big yawn.

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Notre Dame is already a partial member of the ACC, with a commitment to play 5 football games annually vs. ACC opponents through 2036.

If Notre Dame does decide to join a conference, the ACC would be the cleanest option. Because of the Fighting Irish's deal with the ACC, they're believed to be unable to join any other conference until the contract expires 2036

https://saturdayroad.com/notre-dame-fighting-irish/notre-dames-options-in-the-next-round-of-realignment-acc-b1g-or-neither/


Yet, within the ACC's grant of rights arrangement is a provision that affects Notre Dame. This comes not from a columnist or a talking head, but a dry and straightforward (read: personality-free) news service report from ESPN:

The ACC's new grant of rights also automatically extends Notre Dame's contract with the conference as a member in all sports but football through 2035-36, a source said. If the Irish forgo football independence in the next 20 years, they will be contracted to join the ACC.

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2022/07/01/prediction-notre-dame-is-not-going-to-join-a-conference-in-football/

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I get the ACC is touting that, but the facts are pretty clear ND doesn't see it that way. For GoR they are only obligated for their Olympic sports that play in the ACC, and that can probably be bought back for $15M or so.

No one has seen this purported contract that ND can't ever join another conference. And as you always love to say about GoR's or any other contract they can always break it.

Who and how many the B1G adds is more what Fox wants than the B1G. If Fox intends to be a player in the new PAC or B12 contracts, maybe they'll suggest the B1G not add Ore or Wash. But if they are not gonna be players for the PAC or B12, they'll strongly suggest the B1G add the schools they want in their flagship package. GUARANTEED.

NJAggie said:

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CaliforniaCowboy said:

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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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Whoa. Oregon and Washington were not rejected, just placed on hold until Notre Dame decides what it going to do. If ND agrees, then the B1G will need to decide to add either 1 or 3 or 5 other teams. It would be premature to determine the optimal size until ND and their value is mixed into the stew. Which is why the SEC will also look to expand further to insure ESPN has as much or more content than Fox.

Ariz St is a big yawn.

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Notre Dame is already a partial member of the ACC, with a commitment to play 5 football games annually vs. ACC opponents through 2036.

If Notre Dame does decide to join a conference, the ACC would be the cleanest option. Because of the Fighting Irish's deal with the ACC, they're believed to be unable to join any other conference until the contract expires 2036

https://saturdayroad.com/notre-dame-fighting-irish/notre-dames-options-in-the-next-round-of-realignment-acc-b1g-or-neither/


Yet, within the ACC's grant of rights arrangement is a provision that affects Notre Dame. This comes not from a columnist or a talking head, but a dry and straightforward (read: personality-free) news service report from ESPN:

The ACC's new grant of rights also automatically extends Notre Dame's contract with the conference as a member in all sports but football through 2035-36, a source said. If the Irish forgo football independence in the next 20 years, they will be contracted to join the ACC.

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2022/07/01/prediction-notre-dame-is-not-going-to-join-a-conference-in-football/

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I get the ACC is touting that, but the facts are pretty clear ND doesn't see it that way. For GoR they are only obligated for their Olympic sports that play in the ACC, and that can probably be bought back for $15M or so.

No one has seen this purported contract that ND can't ever join another conference. And as you always love to say about GoR's or any other contract they can always break it.

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don't ask me.... that is from ESPN so somebody (even if it is the ACC) knows about it.

who knows what the fee is, but certainly it would include the 5 ACC football games/year unti 2036, and the provision that if they're going to join a league during this GOR, then it must be the ACC.

I think any and all GOR"s can be ended for a price, I simply posted it for Gumby's info, since he was the one defending GOR's. previously.

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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CaliforniaCowboy said:

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what you are hearing cannot be true, and the link I provided suggest that a ND exit would be enormously expensive.

what you heard can not true, because as listed above, in italics, the GOR includes ND football - it's a 2-part GOR. It is a straight reading by "non-partisan", and it says ND football MUST join the ACC. No options.

if is NOT simply a GOR for non-football sports.

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What's the break-up fee? Or penalty for breach?

There's no way a non-football members's fee to exit is in the same financial universe as a regular member.

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it has nothing to do with a break up fee or exit fee from what I can tell, it is a GOR. Not a conf exit fee.

assuming it is real, since it came from ESPN, ND must play 5 ACC games/year. I don't see how they could possibly join another conference and still play 5 ACC games.

I suppose it will all shake out in the future.

CaliforniaCowboy said:

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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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CaliforniaCowboy said:

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what you are hearing cannot be true, and the link I provided suggest that a ND exit would be enormously expensive.

what you heard can not true, because as listed above, in italics, the GOR includes ND football - it's a 2-part GOR. It is a straight reading by "non-partisan", and it says ND football MUST join the ACC. No options.

if is NOT simply a GOR for non-football sports.

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What's the break-up fee? Or penalty for breach?

There's no way a non-football members's fee to exit is in the same financial universe as a regular member.

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it has nothing to do with a break up fee or exit fee from what I can tell, it is a GOR. Not a conf exit fee.

assuming it is real, since it came from ESPN, ND must play 5 ACC games/year. I don't see how they could possibly join another conference and still play 5 ACC games.

I suppose it will all shake out in the future.

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No chance it's a full GOR for football. Zero. And I'm sure there's a break-up or cancellation fee to get out of individual, or multiple ACC games.

I agree with Robert. The inferiority complex of OSU fans is amazing. I have lived in California for the last 30 years. I also lived in Washington for a couple of years. The interest in college football out here is fairly low except for USC and Oregon. Even there USC has been down for several years. Those that are interested, highly respect both OSU and OU. No one out here would be surprised if OSU went to the SEC. Having said all that it might be good for OSU to be in a different conference for a fe we years just to repair the mental damage done to OSU fans by losing to OU consistently for so many years.