Why Can't Realignment Be More Simple? Straight Numbers and Analytics Make it Easy

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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CaliforniaCowboy said:

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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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CaliforniaCowboy said:

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what you are hearing cannot be true, and the link I provided suggest that a ND exit would be enormously expensive.

what you heard can not true, because as listed above, in italics, the GOR includes ND football - it's a 2-part GOR. It is a straight reading by "non-partisan", and it says ND football MUST join the ACC. No options.

if is NOT simply a GOR for non-football sports.

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What's the break-up fee? Or penalty for breach?

There's no way a non-football members's fee to exit is in the same financial universe as a regular member.

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it has nothing to do with a break up fee or exit fee from what I can tell, it is a GOR. Not a conf exit fee.

assuming it is real, since it came from ESPN, ND must play 5 ACC games/year. I don't see how they could possibly join another conference and still play 5 ACC games.

I suppose it will all shake out in the future.

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No chance it's a full GOR for football. Zero. And I'm sure there's a break-up or cancellation fee to get out of individual, or multiple ACC games.

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what the heck does a "full GOR" even mean? (besides nobody has said that, it supposedly is a secondary condition written into their GOR agreement.

I'll try to look it up, but I should have too. It's pretty clear the media money from Basketball ball and the other ND sports ARE included in the standard GOR, along with that grant is the guarantee to play football, AND contractually commit to join the conference.

the way your statement is phased you seem to be suggesting that ND might be able to get out of football and leave their other sports in the ACC, which no conference would accept.

maybe the media rights are only for the other sports and ND could somehow buy their way out of those contests, and also pay the exit fee... but who knows how expensive that might be.

the facts should be out there someplace.

The ACC has no GoR for ND's football. The only GoR is for their other sports that do play in the ACC. That's at most $1-2M a year, and so somewhere between $10-20M to buy it out.

The football is supposed to be tied to a contract where ND has promised to only join the ACC for the length of the GoR. Now that's a contract that is probably really hard to see being airtight. Is it even a contract? And, as we know about ND they don't sign anything they can't get out of.

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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Who and how many the B1G adds is more what Fox wants than the B1G. If Fox intends to be a player in the new PAC or B12 contracts, maybe they'll suggest the B1G not add Ore or Wash. But if they are not gonna be players for the PAC or B12, they'll strongly suggest the B1G add the schools they want in their flagship package. GUARANTEED.

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They are what both want, and the limit seems to be what adds value today. All the chatter out of B1G is waiting on ND, probably Stanford comes in with them, then they're done.

FOX isn't going to pay more than twice the value of programs not already in the B1G to get to some "number". You've made your premier league then you fill up the rest of your slots at half the rate you're paying the B1G.

CaliforniaCowboy said:

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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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CaliforniaCowboy said:

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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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CaliforniaCowboy said:

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what you are hearing cannot be true, and the link I provided suggest that a ND exit would be enormously expensive.

what you heard can not true, because as listed above, in italics, the GOR includes ND football - it's a 2-part GOR. It is a straight reading by "non-partisan", and it says ND football MUST join the ACC. No options.

if is NOT simply a GOR for non-football sports.

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What's the break-up fee? Or penalty for breach?

There's no way a non-football members's fee to exit is in the same financial universe as a regular member.

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it has nothing to do with a break up fee or exit fee from what I can tell, it is a GOR. Not a conf exit fee.

assuming it is real, since it came from ESPN, ND must play 5 ACC games/year. I don't see how they could possibly join another conference and still play 5 ACC games.

I suppose it will all shake out in the future.

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No chance it's a full GOR for football. Zero. And I'm sure there's a break-up or cancellation fee to get out of individual, or multiple ACC games.

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what the heck does a "full GOR" even mean? (besides nobody has said that, it supposedly is a secondary condition written into their GOR agreement.

I'll try to look it up, but I should have too. It's pretty clear the media money from Basketball ball and the other ND sports ARE included in the standard GOR, along with that grant is the guarantee to play football, AND contractually commit to join the conference.

the way your statement is phased you seem to be suggesting that ND might be able to get out of football and leave their other sports in the ACC, which no conference would accept.

maybe the media rights are only for the other sports and ND could somehow buy their way out of those contests, and also pay the exit fee... but who knows how expensive that might be.

the facts should be out there someplace.

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The ACC owns the media rights for its members - which presumably means ND media rights for the sports in which they participate as a member. That does not include football - ND has an exclusive with NBC for football. Thus any GOR that ND has signed with the ACC would not include football. The entire point of the debate and unanswered question is - how much will it cost for ND to extract itself from ACC commitments? I (and NJ, I think) believe that cost to be manageable by ND especially in light of how much they would make as a B1G member.

Yes Gumby I agree. They'll have to buy back their other teams rights, and pay some damages to get out of the exclusivity contract.

Right now ND is getting $15M a year from NBC. They get say $2M a year from the ACC. So jumping to the B1G and getting $100M+ a year they can't afford not to pay off the ACC. At this point I think they're just figuring out how they're doing it. Although there is chatter that the ACC is making them offers they can refuse.

NJAggie said:

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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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Who and how many the B1G adds is more what Fox wants than the B1G. If Fox intends to be a player in the new PAC or B12 contracts, maybe they'll suggest the B1G not add Ore or Wash. But if they are not gonna be players for the PAC or B12, they'll strongly suggest the B1G add the schools they want in their flagship package. GUARANTEED.

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They are what both want, and the limit seems to be what adds value today. All the chatter out of B1G is waiting on ND, probably Stanford comes in with them, then they're done.

FOX isn't going to pay more than twice the value of programs not already in the B1G to get to some "number". You've made your premier league then you fill up the rest of your slots at half the rate you're paying the B1G.

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You mean like they are paying UCLA 4x their value?

That aside, I'd guess the B1G will essentially let ND "pick" at least one school to join alongside with them as a further enticement. But that card would have to be played very thoughtfully.

you two keep saying that ND is not included in the ACC GOR, but ESPN said that it is.

I'll try to look it up, unless one of you actually has something concrete in writing, other than hearsay.

ND's football cannot be included in the ACC GoR as they do not get paid for their football by the ACC but by NBC directly. ND did not do that.

ESPN is not a great source when you're talking about them speaking to something that affects them.

Multiple sources have said that football is only bound by the promise to not join another conference.

CaliforniaCowboy said:

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you two keep saying that ND is not included in the ACC GOR, but ESPN said that it is.

I'll try to look it up, unless one of you actually has something concrete in writing, other than hearsay.

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What would have ND received from the ACC in exchange for signing a football GOR?

BTW, per ESPN - "sources say if ND were to withdraw from the ACC, it can play football wherever it wants. It woul have to pay exit fee and grant of rights fees for its OTHER sports.

NJAggie said:

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ND's football cannot be included in the ACC GoR as they do not get paid for their football by the ACC but by NBC directly. ND did not do that.

ESPN is not a great source when you're talking about them speaking to something that affects them.

Multiple sources have said that football is only bound by the promise to not join another conference.

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I think you said the same thing that I posted, other than it is not a "promise" it is a GOR contract.

A GOR is not only for football, and regardless, the ND/ACC GOR contains football provisions. NBC only gives them $15 mil/yr. Peanuts.

ESPN HAS THE CONTRACT, with the ACC which certainly contains those provisions. The sportingnews reported the same thing as did other media sites.

The Irish are hitched to a pair of television contracts. The deal with NBC runs through 2025 and draws approximately $15 million per year. ESPN's contract with the ACC runs through 2036. That grant of rights deal includes language that if Irish choose to join a conference in football before 2036, they are contractually obligated to join the ACC.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/notre-dame-join-big-ten-future-irish/zteje9akz0h2iwgkwlgeuehd

One outlet that I read, said it would be upwards of $100 million and a ton of expert lawyers for ND to get out of their GOR deal and contract to join the ACC. (I think that was a CBS site I was looking at)

I don't know what it would take legally or financially for ND to breach their contract for the football obligation to the ACC.

there is a GOR, and ND signed it, regardless of whether or not it includes football media monies... it does include conference membership.

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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CaliforniaCowboy said:

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you two keep saying that ND is not included in the ACC GOR, but ESPN said that it is.

I'll try to look it up, unless one of you actually has something concrete in writing, other than hearsay.

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What would have ND received from the ACC in exchange for signing a football GOR?

BTW, per ESPN - "sources say if ND were to withdraw from the ACC, it can play football wherever it wants. It woul have to pay exit fee and grant of rights fees for its OTHER sports.

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any ACC team can do that at any time.... it's just gonna cost ya, like you said... they're just gonna have to pay. and pay. and pay.

what are GOR fees anyway? The ACC owns those media rights through 2036 - all of the money, not fees. You said yourself, you don't get out of a GOR, especially the ACC GOR.

Again $100M is not a big hurdle with what is at stake. That's not much more than UT & OU are paying to get out of the Big12.

Lots of sources are not as afraid of this exclusivity contract as ESPN seems to be (since it benefits them greatly).

If ND chooses not to move then we get to see their brand shrink for the next 10 years then they can move to the B1G.

CaliforniaCowboy said:

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NJAggie said:

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ND's football cannot be included in the ACC GoR as they do not get paid for their football by the ACC but by NBC directly. ND did not do that.

ESPN is not a great source when you're talking about them speaking to something that affects them.

Multiple sources have said that football is only bound by the promise to not join another conference.

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I think you said the same thing that I posted, other than it is not a "promise" it is a GOR contract.

A GOR is not only for football, and regardless, the ND/ACC GOR contains football provisions. NBC only gives them $15 mil/yr. Peanuts.

ESPN HAS THE CONTRACT, with the ACC which certainly contains those provisions. The sportingnews reported the same thing as did other media sites.

The Irish are hitched to a pair of television contracts. The deal with NBC runs through 2025 and draws approximately $15 million per year. ESPN's contract with the ACC runs through 2036. That grant of rights deal includes language that if Irish choose to join a conference in football before 2036, they are contractually obligated to join the ACC.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/notre-dame-join-big-ten-future-irish/zteje9akz0h2iwgkwlgeuehd

One outlet that I read, said it would be upwards of $100 million and a ton of expert lawyers for ND to get out of their GOR deal and contract to join the ACC. (I think that was a CBS site I was looking at)

I don't know what it would take legally or financially for ND to breach their contract for the football obligation to the ACC.

there is a GOR, and ND signed it, regardless of whether or not it includes football media monies... it does include conference membership.

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"That grant of rights deal includes language that if Irish choose to join a conference in football before 2036, they are contractually obligated to join the ACC."


If the above statement is true, it has nothing to do with ND forfeiting the future media value of football. It only states they are obligated to join the ACC if they choose to join a conference. Language like that almost always includes a break-up fee or penalty for breach. I can't imagine that fee would be greater than a regular exit fee - 2 years of distributions in the case of OU and UT.

The cost of extracting itself from ACC commitments isn't going to be prohibitive.

NJAggie said:

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Again $100M is not a big hurdle with what is at stake. That's not much more than UT & OU are paying to get out of the Big12.

Lots of sources are not as afraid of this exclusivity contract as ESPN seems to be (since it benefits them greatly).

If ND chooses not to move then we get to see their brand shrink for the next 10 years then they can move to the B1G.

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I sort of agree with all of that.... OU/Texas chose NOT to pay that amount, and stuck around 2 more years to get the payout amount to drop considerably.

.... and the $100 million might be the dollar amount, but that does not address the contractual commitment to join the ACC. What is it going to cost ND to settle that part? They better have some really, really, really good lawyers (and years to spend litigating it)

I'm not ruling out anything... but I'm thinking the most likely is ND remains independent for a few more years (because they can) and waits for the playoff expansion decision. At that time, they either remain independent or they join the ACC, who entices ESPN to enhance their contract to include the value ND adds.

CaliforniaCowboy said:

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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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CaliforniaCowboy said:

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you two keep saying that ND is not included in the ACC GOR, but ESPN said that it is.

I'll try to look it up, unless one of you actually has something concrete in writing, other than hearsay.

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What would have ND received from the ACC in exchange for signing a football GOR?

BTW, per ESPN - "sources say if ND were to withdraw from the ACC, it can play football wherever it wants. It woul have to pay exit fee and grant of rights fees for its OTHER sports.

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any ACC team can do that at any time.... it's just gonna cost ya, like you said... they're just gonna have to pay. and pay. and pay.

what are GOR fees anyway? The ACC owns those media rights through 2036 - all of the money, not fees. You said yourself, you don't get out of a GOR, especially the ACC GOR.

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GOR have no associated fees. The 'RIGHTS" to media are granted to the other party. The other party has the "RIGHT" to collect those $$$ directly from the media that's paying for the content.

The ACC does not own ND football media rights. PERIOD. And ND did not grant those rights.

If ND wants to join the B1G, they'll buyout the GOR for non-football sports, pay for the breach of "join the ACC" obligation, and pay the cancellation fees for future football games. Probably as one big settlement. Like NJ said, if that takes $100mm, so be it, it's well worth it.

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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If ND wants to join the B1G, they'll buyout the GOR for non-football sports, pay for the breach of "join the ACC" obligation, and pay the cancellation fees for future football games. Probably as one big settlement. Like NJ said, if that takes $100mm, so be it, it's well worth it.

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yes, that is exactly what I have been saying all along.... except the "obligation to join the ACC", it's uncertain what that might cost or how long it would take to negotiate.

$100 million was the number I threw out there from an article estimate when OU/Texas decided to leave over 11 months ago.... certainly it would be way north of that number now - and did not include the settlement for the breach of "join the ACC".

We'll see, but this is way complicated and way expensive, and will likely only be settled by lawyers years down the road.

I expect they can buy out if they want, same as I said for the existing ACC GOR agreement for Clemson and Fl State. The only question is how much.

That's what you've been saying? Haven't you been saying ND has signed a GOR for football? And thus ND has the same impediment to leaving the ACC as its members do ? I'm not sure you know what you've been saying.

If it's settled by lawyers, that means ND has joined the B1G.

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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That's what you've been saying? Haven't you been saying ND has signed a GOR for football? And thus ND has the same impediment to leaving the ACC as its members do ? I'm not sure you know what you've been saying.

If it's settled by lawyers, that means ND has joined the B1G.

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No, I did not ever say that ND had a GOR with the ACC for football media rights. I have consistently said the the ACC GOR includes provisions for ND football to join the league. (I originally believe the agreement included a set number of FB games be played with the ACC (but not media rights), but it appears that the 5 game lineup was not part of the GOR, but rather just convenience).

I know exactly what I've been saying, and have said the same consistently.

I just find it fascinating that you were on the opposite side of the ACC GOR discussion just a few months back, and now you're on the "lawyers can handle it" (my position). It's just utterly fascinating trying to converse with you while you flip-flop on every topic.

ND turned down the B1G when they had a chance to split profits 12 ways, why would they now be willing to take a 16 or 20 share split? You don't need to answer, we can't possibly know.

OU & UT owed the last two years of conference distributions for leaving that's going to be about $90M each. By staying the chose not to buy back their media rights which would have been another $90M each. They didn't get anything reduced, they simply are fulfilling their contract.

NJAggie said:

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OU & UT owed the last two years of conference distributions for leaving that's going to be about $90M each. By staying the chose not to buy back their media rights which would have been another $90M each. They didn't get anything reduced, they simply are fulfilling their contract.

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yeah, that's what I said. they pay less by staying because the buy-out was too rich for their blood.

I presume your point is that ND has richer blood and can afford that amount, where big money Texas could not.

Even with them fulfilling their GOR obligations, they are still on the hook for the exit fee (about $90 mil, as you say)

All of that to say, who knows what the ACC could demand from ND to let them out of their "join the conference" contract. (on top of the GOR money owed, and the exit fees)

The ACC could vote NOT to let ND out, who could breach the contract and wait for a court enforced settlement down the road (or an out of court settlement)

Actually, the only payments OU/UT would ever contractually have to make is their exit fee - 2 years of distributions. If they leave before the expiration of current media deal, the B12 gets to either keep their share, or collect it from whichever media outlet is paying for OU/UT content through June 2024.

GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

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Actually, the only payments OU/UT would ever contractually have to make is their exit fee - 2 years of distributions. If they leave before the expiration of current media deal, the B12 gets to either keep their share, or collect it from whichever media outlet is paying for OU/UT content through June 2024.

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I guess if you want to focus on semantics.... not collected revenues due to penalty is for all intents and purposes a "payment".

they would forfeit their revenue as a means of payment. They could do that for either the GOR or the exit penalty.

technically you would be correct they would not have to come up with the money from their existing stash, but they would have to pay by not getting paid revenue.

if the B12 is collecting, somebody is paying.... and it's not the media outlets giving up free money

I'm almost 100% positive, that the B12 will "withhold" the exit fee distribution (so UT/OU do not "technically" have to pay anything, provided they also ride out their GOR contract, otherwise that money would be due the B12 also.

Well now CBS has joined the chorus and it looks as if Oregon & Washington have joined the talks.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-in-deep-discussions-to-add-up-to-six-pac-12-teams-after-usc-ucla-defections-to-big-ten/

NJ, I'm not sure the article says that... it's written sort of as a grab all, click bait, type of sensationalism.

It does say some "source" did mention that, and some other source said merger, and another source said everything is on the table, then they threw in a tid-bit about ND just to add to the click bait, even though ND has nothing to do with B12 or P12 discussions.

Sometimes CBS reports with actual facts, but that was just another rumor mill article.

(i.e., how many rumors can we put in one article).

The only fact was that the B12 was meeting to possibly discuss the 4, which we already knew.

lots and lots of rumors and wild speculation, very few facts or reliable sources.

Why is no one talking about the need for the SEC to match the Big 10's new profile of a nation-wide league?
Particularly if the Big 10 was to expand again with Oregon and Stanford or Utah.

No interest (eyeballs) on a truly "regional" SEC will not compete $-wise with the intersectional games of the Big 10. Then, if the PAC gets Norte Dame, which is very possible these days, the SEC won't be able, no matter who's left, to be anything but a relegated number two conference!

Wardawg said:

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Why is no one talking about the need for the SEC to match the Big 10's new profile of a nation-wide league?
Particularly if the Big 10 was to expand again with Oregon and Stanford or Utah.

No interest (eyeballs) on a truly "regional" SEC will not compete $-wise with the intersectional games of the Big 10. Then, if the PAC gets Norte Dame, which is very possible these days, the SEC won't be able, no matter who's left, to be anything but a relegated number two conference!

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Mainly because the SEC can't match that move right now. There's no one to match it with. The ACC schools that might add to their contract value are tied up in the ACC, and don't begin to match the USC/UCLA value.

Right now the SEC is sitting and waiting their opportunity. I think they've encouraged some ACC schools to test the GoR, but that's about all they can do right now.

Wardawg said:

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Why is no one talking about the need for the SEC to match the Big 10's new profile of a nation-wide league?
Particularly if the Big 10 was to expand again with Oregon and Stanford or Utah.

No interest (eyeballs) on a truly "regional" SEC will not compete $-wise with the intersectional games of the Big 10. Then, if the PAC gets Norte Dame, which is very possible these days, the SEC won't be able, no matter who's left, to be anything but a relegated number two conference!

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I think the SEC remains the top dawg no matter what the B1G does, and no matter who they add.

ND won't ever join the PAC. Not ever.

Nobody really cares what the B1G does, they can barely get one team into the playoff most seasons, and they had to form "an alliance" just last year to try an stave off the SEC dominance. Adding two more bottom feeders (USC/UCLA to their conference does not improve them by much).

The odd thing is everybody mocked me when I suggested that the B12 expand coast-to-coast, as a bridge too far, too many time zones.... but that is no longer mentioned... just like that. If the B1G could draw in Utah and Colorado, then they might actually make some ground on the SEC.

What if the invite to the SEC is only for 3/4 a share? Basically all the current teams get a dollar and we would only get .75 cents.

Would you take this offer?

Note, could be that others after us have to take even less! 50% share. % is based on viewership contribution.

Reduced % could still be double or more than what Big 12 could pay.

Conferences will need quality content at the right price.

AustinCowboy88 said:

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What if the invite to the SEC is only for 3/4 a share? Basically all the current teams get a dollar and we would only get .75 cents.

Would you take this offer?

Note, could be that others after us have to take even less! 50% share. % is based on viewership contribution.

Reduced % could still be double or more than what Big 12 could pay.

Conferences will need quality content at the right price.

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Might be okay. I wonder if the B12 might consider an alternative distribution model if the league expands to include Wash and Ore? Something like 50% of the distribution being equal shares. The other 50% based on viewership. That would provide more incentive for the good teams to stay (not seek another home) while not decimating the less popular teams. Just a thought.

AustinCowboy88 said:

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What if the invite to the SEC is only for 3/4 a share? Basically all the current teams get a dollar and we would only get .75 cents.

Would you take this offer?

Note, could be that others after us have to take even less! 50% share. % is based on viewership contribution.

Reduced % could still be double or more than what Big 12 could pay.

Conferences will need quality content at the right price.

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That's a tough call. I personally probably wouldn't if it was up to me, as I don't think being in the SEC is good for OSU outside of the money. I could see the admin doing it.

We already see Stanford, Oregon, & Washington begging the B1G for such a deal.

AustinCowboy88 said:

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What if the invite to the SEC is only for 3/4 a share? Basically all the current teams get a dollar and we would only get .75 cents.

Would you take this offer?

Note, could be that others after us have to take even less! 50% share. % is based on viewership contribution.

Reduced % could still be double or more than what Big 12 could pay.

Conferences will need quality content at the right price.

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I personally would not want us to join the SEC even at a full share.

My preference would be to move down to a lower echelon if it were between dropping down or joining the SEC

Here's some insight on the "alliance" talk some media are pushing.

https://247sports.com/college/arizona/Article/possible-pac-12-acc-partnership-makes-little-sense-189724527/

While the article hints that the ACC's real motive might just be to get their contract renegotiated. That could provide a window of opportunity for the SEC to raid them so ESPN could be up to their old games.

Something that wasn’t covered much in the ACC articles today is that the agreement would likely open up a negotiating window. That means Miami, Clemson, Florida State, UNC could all leave and the ACC is open to be raided. Makes no sense.

— Jason Scheer (@jasonscheer) July 6, 2022

NJAggie said:

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While the article hints that the ACC's real motive might just be to get their contract renegotiated. That could provide a window of opportunity for the SEC to raid them so ESPN could be up to their old games.

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I'm not following that line of reasoning... the ACC renegotiated contract with ESPN would have nothing at all to do with the ACC GOR, so any "raiding" would still be financially prohibitive.

what did I miss?

CaliforniaCowboy said:

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NJAggie said:

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While the article hints that the ACC's real motive might just be to get their contract renegotiated. That could provide a window of opportunity for the SEC to raid them so ESPN could be up to their old games.

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I'm not following that line of reasoning... the ACC renegotiated contract with ESPN would have nothing at all to do with the ACC GOR, so any "raiding" would still be financially prohibitive.

what did I miss?

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Since the GOR is tied to the current tv deal via the expiration date, its very possible a new tv deal terminates the GOR.