Oklahoma State Better Alone Than With Rest of Big 12?

STILLWATER – This may surprise you, but I agree with some of the recent opinions thrown out there by CBS sportswriter Dennis Dodd. A long-time observer of college football and college sports in the middle of America, Dodd and I were once fellow skywriters on the Big Eight Skywriters Tour. Dodd is an award-winning writer, and I’m sure that his story last weekend in the wake of Texas and Oklahoma making reservations to be in the Southeastern Conference and the rumored (far from happening) alliance with the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 was not welcomed by most Oklahoma State and remaining Big 12 schools’ fans.

Dodd drove it home that the meeting and discussion of the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 leaving out the rest of the Big 12 meant the Big 12 is not desired.

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Dodd has covered the Big 12 and college football nationally for a long time.

Dodd wrote:

“Of course, even the hint of an alliance is a bad sign for the Big 12. It signals that the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 do not believe the Big 12's eight remaining programs -- in any form -- bring substantial value to their conferences. Taken a step further, it suggests a reality that could see the Big 12 or American fade away with one likely absorbing the other.”

Dodd added that the remaining Big 12 schools would be in for doom and gloom. Dodd called it a nuclear winter for those school’s athletic budgets. He is right if all those schools die on the vine, but my contention is a few will die and a few will be picked up in other conferences. We have stated that if the SEC and Greg Sankey want to see Texas and Oklahoma playing in the SEC before the grant-of-rights are up then the simplest solution is to pick up a couple of other Big 12 schools and help the conference dissolve earlier. There are also some spots, even with an alliance, that could open up in the Big Ten and the Pac-12. The one league I see standing pat is the Atlantic Coast Conference.  

Here is where I disagree with Dodd as he hinted that Oklahoma State could fall from being a Power Five or major conference member.

Dodd wrote:

“Who absorbs who doesn't really matter at this point. We're almost assured of dropping from 10 to nine FBS conferences. Ten years ago, realignment offered a step up for the likes TCU (Big 12) and Utah (Pac-12). This time, it threatens to thin the herd with the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Baylor no longer being major-conference members. Kansas could wind up playing basketball in the Mountain West.

Cut from that herd would be eight Big 12 athletic departments with a combined nine national championships in football and basketball and 44 major bowl berths.

"That's a massive, massive blow," one high-profile sports TV industry source said.”

Why I don’t see that happening is this. Based on the television numbers from Sports Media Watch.

Texas and Oklahoma combined over the 2015-19 seasons we used on average viewers per week (game) for 41 percent of the viewers watching all of Big 12 football contests. Oklahoma State accounted for just under 12 percent of viewers per week, meaning that those three Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State accounted for 53 percent of the viewers per week.

TCU was next at 11 percent, West Virginia at 9.2 percent, and Baylor at eight percent.

I would say any of those schools would be candidates to get picked up. The other schools in Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Kansas are not where you would want to be in television viewers.

These games do include all teams’ games including the games they play against Texas and Oklahoma. It is fair as in other conferences you play big draw teams such as Alabama and Georgia in the SEC, Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten, etc.