GumbyFromPokeyLand said:
No, no, no! Do not add teams! Worst idea ever. No way we ever get to one of the other power conferences if the B12 adds teams now and then has to negotiate a new media contract. On the heels of the OU/UT fiasco, every school would surely have to agree to terms that would be economically prohibitive to ever get out of the conference.
Unless there's an acceptable landing spot for at least 8 of 10 teams, nobody will be able to leave before 2025 anyway. The other conferences know this and are in no hurry to offer admittance only to be told nobody can move till 2025. There's no upside for them to offer now. They will want to wait and see how their own new media deals shake out, and maybe even a new CFP format.
OSU will play out the current media contract, all the while staying in contact with the other conferences, and be available when either the B1G or PAC or SEC is ready to make a move - it will come. There's very little downside and huge potential upside if we can just BE PATIENT.
And be left holding the bag in 4 years.
Waiting on others to expand is the most ignorant put your head in the sand plan we or any of the other schools could put in play.
Luckily the expansion committee is moving and ready to start considering schools now. Hocutt met with the Presidents this morning, and will meet with the AD's live next week. Oliver Luck has been hired to work with them on expansion plans and media contracts.
The league has no time to wait. It takes a long time to complete these negotiations and we may need teams as early as 2023, and we need a lineup to go to market with by 2024. Now maybe they don't start playing until 2025, but you have to have the lineup in place to negotiate. 10 or 12 looks like the best number as going beyond that its hard to find enough value to not lose money.
We have several things going for us to stay together, and very little to encourage us the expansion offers would help any of the schools.
First we have position as an autonomous conference with access to the playoffs. The Alliance is screaming that they don't want that to go away. We can also bring that into our negotiations with the SEC to let the little 2 out of the GoR. So it would look like the conference will have a playoff berth, and based on the B1G/PAC statements on this we are probably getting an 8 team playoff that pits those two conferences together in the Rose Bowl, and would see the SEC/ACC/Big XII champs hosting at large teams in other NYD bowls. Getting a B1G/PAC Rose Bowl at 5pm pt on NYD is like goal #1 for the Alliance.
We can negotiate early GoR exit for the little 2 and get a scheduling agreement with the SEC. Say 16 games a year so we have 8 games to sell in our package, and we'll be picking up 8 checks at the better SEC per game rate.
Those things add value, and Bowlsby's worst estimate was a drop to $26M so getting into the 30's can be done if we're aggressive and make good moves. If we sit on our hands $26M might be tough to get.
Expansion of the other P5 conferences needs to be forgotten. The Alliance is standing against that. No one but ESPN and some sports writers ever wanted the 4x16 set up that too many people keep looking to happen. None of the Alliance conferences have a need or desire to expand. So we just need to focus on building the Big XII.
