Analytics Group Has Grim Projections for Payouts in Big 12, Pac-12, and ACC

STILLWATER – The analytics consulting firm Navigate did a blog that no doubt got some major attention from Power 5 conferences and their members earlier this week when they put their heads together and used current multimedia contracts and current trends in college athletics with television rights, bowls, NCAA payouts, conference championship events, and all revenue generating processes to project what the payouts will be to each school for the rest of this decade. 

You don’t have to be an industry expert to know with their future television contract negotiated with ESPN that the SEC is in “tall cotton” when it comes to future earnings. 

Just in case you are wondering there are over 50-million reasons why Oklahoma and Texas bolted last summer for the SEC when invited. That is the eventual difference, roughly projected in the difference in the payouts per school between the SEC and Big 12. If Oklahoma State or any school were asked, it is a no brainer to join the SEC if invited.

Navigate

The graph looks bad for the Big 12.

There are circumstances that could change these projections as far as negotiating strategy or the way the three conferences in the Big Ten, Pac-12, and Big 12 that have yet to negotiate their future deals. The Big Ten is up next later this year. The Pac-12 is next year, and the Bg 12 the year after that. 

Adding Cincinnati, Central Florida, Houston, and BYU will help the Big 12, but it cannot make up for losing the viewing numbers that Oklahoma and Texas bring to football broadcasts. 

Here are the numbers that Navigate is projecting for Major College Conference Payouts (per school): Amount in millions

You can look at the chart above and see when new contracts kick in. The SEC new deal begins in 2025. The next Big Ten contract would start in 2026. The Big 12 deal will begin in 2026, but the porjections are it will not be any more lucrative than the won they currently have. The Pac-12 kicks in 2025. The ACC has a long-term deal through 2036, but it has projected jumps that are more tied to the future College Football Playoff contract.

One former network television executive saw the Pokes Report story published earlier this month suggesting the the Big 12 and Pac-12 form a consortium to bid their television rights together. That former executive reportedly thought that would be a smart negotiating strategy for both conferences. Something like that, Navigate admitted was not taken into account with these projections. They can come out different.