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Analytics Group Has Grim Projections for Payouts in Big 12, Pac-12, and ACC

March 16, 2022
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STILLWATER – The analytics consulting firm Navigate did a blog that no doubt got some major attention from Power 5 conferences and their members earlier this week when they put their heads together and used current multimedia contracts and current trends in college athletics with television rights, bowls, NCAA payouts, conference championship events, and all revenue generating processes to project what the payouts will be to each school for the rest of this decade. 

You don’t have to be an industry expert to know with their future television contract negotiated with ESPN that the SEC is in “tall cotton” when it comes to future earnings. 

Just in case you are wondering there are over 50-million reasons why Oklahoma and Texas bolted last summer for the SEC when invited. That is the eventual difference, roughly projected in the difference in the payouts per school between the SEC and Big 12. If Oklahoma State or any school were asked, it is a no brainer to join the SEC if invited.

Navigate
The graph looks bad for the Big 12.

There are circumstances that could change these projections as far as negotiating strategy or the way the three conferences in the Big Ten, Pac-12, and Big 12 that have yet to negotiate their future deals. The Big Ten is up next later this year. The Pac-12 is next year, and the Bg 12 the year after that. 

Adding Cincinnati, Central Florida, Houston, and BYU will help the Big 12, but it cannot make up for losing the viewing numbers that Oklahoma and Texas bring to football broadcasts. 

Here are the numbers that Navigate is projecting for Major College Conference Payouts (per school): Amount in millions

Year SEC Big Ten Big 12 Pac-12 ACC
2022 $54.3 $57.2 $40.6 $34.4 $30.9
2023 $56.0 $58.9 $41.8 $35.5 $36.3
2024 $57.6 $73.0 $43.1 $36.6 $37.9
2025 $74.9 $76.2 $44.3 $42.6 $39.6
2026 $96.4 $86.5 $47.5 $51.7 $48.6
2027 $99.3 $89.1 $49.0 $53.2 $50.7
2028 $102.3 $91.8 $50.4 $54.8 $52.9
2029 $105.3 $94.5 $51.9 $56.5 $55.3

You can look at the chart above and see when new contracts kick in. The SEC new deal begins in 2025. The next Big Ten contract would start in 2026. The Big 12 deal will begin in 2026, but the porjections are it will not be any more lucrative than the won they currently have. The Pac-12 kicks in 2025. The ACC has a long-term deal through 2036, but it has projected jumps that are more tied to the future College Football Playoff contract.

One former network television executive saw the Pokes Report story published earlier this month suggesting the the Big 12 and Pac-12 form a consortium to bid their television rights together. That former executive reportedly thought that would be a smart negotiating strategy for both conferences. Something like that, Navigate admitted was not taken into account with these projections. They can come out different.

Discussion from...

Analytics Group Has Grim Projections for Payouts in Big 12, Pac-12, and ACC

4,546 Views | 18 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by CaliforniaCowboy
Polston31
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Damn I hope these numbers are wrong lol we need to go big ten or sec later if possible no way would it be good to fall that far behind financially
WCOkie
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What did they project in 2013 for 2014-2022 without context this is self aggrandizing blather for the internet to get worked up over. If on the other hand their prior projection was anywhere near to actuals then I want take my grade on the pokes in the b12 from a 2 to a 0 and it bodes incredibly poorly not just for the pokes college sports as a whole
Polston31
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I have no idea what they were. I just hope the big 12 can muster up more than that. Shows us as one of the least profitable conferences and I want ok state to reach new heights. All the rest is whatever. I'm not opposed to joining a better conference later on to keep the program competing at the highest level
CaliforniaCowboy
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they don't look correct... I thought our recent discussions had the ACC at 17 mil/team

something doesn't line up
Orangeheart72
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I love the idea of being in a conference that doesn't have a media darling/blueblood like Ohio State, Texas, etc. Looking at this consulting firm's analysis tells us very little about actual negotiations outcomes or impacts on teams. We regularly get recruits that opt for OSU over better funded programs. We regularly beat better funded programs in actual games. If ESPN is stupid enough to pay double to Mizzou to watch them lose to Alabama, LSU and Georgia every year, so be it.

OSU will be fine and we'll be in a conference where teams can somewhat compete on a level playing field. I have no desire to be Alabama and LSU's easier game just to get some more money. This truly seems a time when "money isn't everything!" And if we make it to the MNP game or someone from our conference does, pray we win one over the rich and famous!
CaliforniaCowboy
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Orangeheart72 said:

I love the idea of being in a conference that doesn't have a media darling/blueblood like Ohio State, Texas, etc. Looking at this consulting firm's analysis tells us very little about actual negotiations outcomes or impacts on teams. We regularly get recruits that opt for OSU over better funded programs. We regularly beat better funded programs in actual games. If ESPN is stupid enough to pay double to Mizzou to watch them lose to Alabama, LSU and Georgia every year, so be it.

OSU will be fine and we'll be in a conference where teams can somewhat compete on a level playing field. I have no desire to be Alabama and LSU's easier game just to get some more money. This truly seems a time when "money isn't everything!" And if we make it to the MNP game or someone from our conference does, pray we win one over the rich and famous!
Post of the Month!!!
Polston31
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Does no one think we could become a team that competes with the big boys with more money to build the program with? Look at what has been achieved under Gundy up to this point? Those dollars from Boone sure helped a lot too. Imagine being in a conference making 100 mil a team. Nobody thinks we could use that to be more than we are now? I don't personally think we are resigned to be a doormat for bigger teams. We definitely aren't Missouri. I don't hate staying in the big 12 but if hypothetically these numbers are even remotely close then we would be falling vastly behind. I want more than to compete at a level playin field for a conference title that might not mean anything each year. All of this is assuming these numbers have some merit and if they do I don't see the upside to being in the least profitable conference.
GumbyFromPokeyLand
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A few take-aways
1. the absolute numbers are kinda meaningless by themselves. But because the methodology to forecast future revenue was presumably the same for each conference, It's the relative numbers that scare me. If the B12 is projected to only get 50%, or less, of the SEC and B1G in the future, that will eventually show up on the field.
2. the B12 apparently will not get a meaningful bump with a new contract in 2025. While the B12 will lose 2 teams, it picks up 4 teams without gaining revenue. Although it's difficult to nail down, adding 4 new teams likely decreased the future payouts on a per school basis. At minimum, it didn't help.
3. the per year growth rate is ultra-concerning. The B12 starts out meaningfully higher than the PAC or ACC, but quickly gets passed by both the PAC and ACC after our new deal kicks in in 2026. The B12 is gonna retain is national perception as the bottom of the P5 conferences. (See 2 above).
4. while I don't think it's necessary to keep up $ for $ with the B1G and SEC to stay competitive on the field, OSU has to find a way to get much closer than the numbers indicate. Eventually we'll fall way behind in facilities, coaches salaries and recruiting budgets. Eventually we won't be able to compete for top recruits and results will suffer. God help us if college football goes to an open market pay for play model.
5. OSU would be CRAZY to sign a new Grant of Rights agreement in connection with a new media deal.
Polston31
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This guy gets it ^^^^^
Danny Deck
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It's a really good sign for us that Amazon and Apple are both getting more seriously into streaming sports. The more suitors we have the likelier we are to get a good deal.
CaliforniaCowboy
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Danny Deck said:

It's a really good sign for us that Amazon and Apple are both getting more seriously into streaming sports. The more suitors we have the likelier we are to get a good deal.
there are lots of "good signs" out there, if folks take the time to look, and not buy into the nonsense that this analyst is spewing with unsupported projections and wild suppositions.

shame on anybody that gives that published nonsense more than just a passing glance. It's just click bait.
GumbyFromPokeyLand
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I'd love to ignore it if there were other analyses. Maybe you can give us some alternative projections.
Danny Deck
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Go on.

Who knows about these specific numbers, but the gap presented between the SEC and Big 10 and everyone else seems very likely. I think that we should probably end up over the Pac 12 and roughly even with the ACC but a long long way from the Big 10 who won't be nearly as valuable as the SEC.
CaliforniaCowboy
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GumbyFromPokeyLand said:

I'd love to ignore it if there were other analyses. Maybe you can give us some alternative projections.
I was agreeing with 72 - it just doesn't matter. Use any fictional numbers that make you happy.

NJAggie
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I don't think they're too far off but we'll see. I think they're really hyping the ACC by giving them raises in their contract that to date ESPN hasn't given on look in dates, and they have no reason to give them more money so probably they will be well behind the PaC and Big XII. We'll find out next year when the PAC goes to market. Big XII should beat them.
GumbyFromPokeyLand
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NJAggie said:

I don't think they're too far off but we'll see. I think they're really hyping the ACC by giving them raises in their contract that to date ESPN hasn't given on look in dates, and they have no reason to give them more money so probably they will be well behind the PaC and Big XII. We'll find out next year when the PAC goes to market. Big XII should beat them.


They're probably projecting an increase in subscriptions or subscription rates for the ACC Network.
NJAggie
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There is no subscription based payout for the ESPN network.

The ACC is due some look in's by ESPN where ESPN can decide to increase the payout. ESPN let the first two pass without even looking. I think they're giving them money that ESPN hasn't and doesn't seem interested in paying.

I think they're in the ballpark on Big XII & PAC, but they're being really rosy for the ACC when there is no basis for it.
CaliforniaCowboy
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of course there isn't.... that "analysis" simply made up some wild projections, since we know their current contract does not cover those amounts....

but hey, contracts cannot be broken or amended, right? After all, why would ESPN relent and offer more money?

Right?

Isn't that the shut up lecture we got from him last time?
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